Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Samandar Murodov
Gian Siqueira
60%
40%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
23
Age
Δ 5y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Murodov: 17 sig / 1 TD ·
Siqueira: 4 sig / 0 TD
Samandar Murodov
Gian Siqueira
36
Sig strikes landed
40
79
Sig strikes attempted
80
77
Total strikes landed
57
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
152s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Samandar Murodov
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
Blue corner
Gian Siqueira
"Pitbull"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28