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Main Featherweight

Blake Bilder vs Alexander Morgan

DWCS 6.6 ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Blake Bilder
Alexander Morgan
55% 45%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Bilder: 9 sig / 0 TD · Morgan: 12 sig / 0 TD
Blake Bilder
Alexander Morgan
34
Sig strikes landed
38
71
Sig strikes attempted
79
46
Total strikes landed
53
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
130s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Blake Bilder

"El Animal"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
Blue corner

Alexander Morgan

"The Chess Master"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31