Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Bruno Silva
Gerald Meerschaert
48%
52%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
78"
33
Age
Δ 2y
35
23-14
Career record
Δ 0 pp
37-23
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Silva: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Meerschaert: 46 sig / 1 TD
Bruno Silva
Gerald Meerschaert
40
Sig strikes landed
38
81
Sig strikes attempted
78
51
Total strikes landed
43
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
106s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
51%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Bruno Silva
"Blindado"
23-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
Blue corner
L1
Gerald Meerschaert
"GM3"
37-23
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
16 fights · 9-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—