Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Ozzy Diaz
Joe Pyfer
35%
65%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
32
Age
Δ 6y
26
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Diaz: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Pyfer: 26 sig / 1 TD
Ozzy Diaz
Joe Pyfer
34
Sig strikes landed
27
63
Sig strikes attempted
49
51
Total strikes landed
45
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
98s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ozzy Diaz
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
L1
Joe Pyfer
"Bodybagz"
16-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DWCS 4.2
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