Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Zhang Mingyang
Tuco Tokkos
81%
19%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
24
Age
Δ 8y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Mingyang: 35 sig / 0 TD ·
Tokkos: 22 sig / 1 TD
Zhang Mingyang
Tuco Tokkos
39
Sig strikes landed
32
80
Sig strikes attempted
69
57
Total strikes landed
46
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
139s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Zhang Mingyang
"Mountain Tiger"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner
Tuco Tokkos
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32