Main
Light Heavyweight
Paul Craig vs Volkan Oezdemir
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall
·The O2 Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Paul Craig
Volkan Oezdemir
43%
57%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
35
Age
Δ 2y
33
18-10-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
21-9
W4
Current streak
L2
13
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Craig: 33 sig / 0 TD ·
Oezdemir: 72 sig / 1 TD
Paul Craig
Volkan Oezdemir
34
Sig strikes landed
33
77
Sig strikes attempted
67
44
Total strikes landed
46
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
123s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Paul Craig
"Bearjew"
18-10-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
13 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
Blue corner
L2
Volkan Oezdemir
"No Time"
21-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
L
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—