Back to UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic
Prelims1 Lightweight

Michael Johnson vs Alan Patrick

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Michael Johnson
Alan Patrick
48% 52%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
36
Age
Δ 3y
39
25-21
Career record
Δ 25 pp
15-4
L4
Current streak
L2
24
UFC fights in our DB
9

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Johnson: 30 sig / 1 TD · Patrick: 22 sig / 0 TD
Michael Johnson
Alan Patrick
42
Sig strikes landed
36
89
Sig strikes attempted
85
60
Total strikes landed
61
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.1
Takedowns attempted
7.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
55s
Control time
186s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L4

Michael Johnson

"The Menace"
25-21
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database 24 fights · 11-13
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
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L UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
L UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
Blue corner
L2

Alan Patrick

"Nuguette"
15-4 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database 9 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
L UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—