Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Jake Hadley
Allan Nascimento
44%
56%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
26
Age
Δ 5y
31
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hadley: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Nascimento: 19 sig / 2 TD
Jake Hadley
Allan Nascimento
27
Sig strikes landed
32
45
Sig strikes attempted
53
43
Total strikes landed
47
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
109s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jake Hadley
"White Kong"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
Blue corner
L1
Allan Nascimento
"Puro Osso"
22-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
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