Back to UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
Prelims1 Lightweight

Maheshate vs Steve Garcia

UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka ·Singapore Indoor Stadium
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Maheshate
Steve Garcia
44% 56%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
22
Age
Δ 8y
30
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Maheshate: 7 sig / 0 TD · Garcia: 7 sig / 0 TD
Maheshate
Steve Garcia
26
Sig strikes landed
32
48
Sig strikes attempted
58
41
Total strikes landed
51
0.4
Takedowns landed
2.1
1.2
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
83s
Control time
205s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
44%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Maheshate

0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
Blue corner
W1

Steve Garcia

"Mean Machine"
20-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
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