Back to UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie
Prelims2 Heavyweight

Aleksei Oleinik vs Jared Vanderaa

UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie ·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Aleksei Oleinik
Jared Vanderaa
97% 3%
Why
80"
Reach
80"
45
Age
Δ 15y
30
60-18-1
Career record
Δ 24 pp
12-11
L3
Current streak
L2
15
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Oleinik: 8 sig / 0 TD · Vanderaa: 15 sig / 0 TD
Aleksei Oleinik
Jared Vanderaa
34
Sig strikes landed
38
76
Sig strikes attempted
86
54
Total strikes landed
44
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.1
2.5
Takedowns attempted
0.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
177s
Control time
30s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
47%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Aleksei Oleinik

"The Boa Constrictor"
60-18-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
45
In our database 15 fights · 8-7
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
L UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
W UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
Blue corner
L2

Jared Vanderaa

12-11
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—