Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Pat Sabatini
TJ Laramie
81%
19%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
31
Age
Δ 7y
24
23-5
Career record
Δ 15 pp
12-6
W3
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sabatini: 36 sig / 6 TD ·
Laramie: 15 sig / 1 TD
Pat Sabatini
TJ Laramie
33
Sig strikes landed
22
54
Sig strikes attempted
99
80
Total strikes landed
35
2.8
Takedowns landed
0.4
5.0
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
330s
Control time
42s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Pat Sabatini
23-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
Blue corner
L1
TJ Laramie
12-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—