Back to UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus
Prelims1 Middleweight

Aliaskhab Khizriev vs Denis Tiuliulin

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus ·Nationwide Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Aliaskhab Khizriev
Denis Tiuliulin
85% 15%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Khizriev: 42 sig / 2 TD · Tiuliulin: 31 sig / 0 TD
Aliaskhab Khizriev
Denis Tiuliulin
35
Sig strikes landed
33
68
Sig strikes attempted
73
82
Total strikes landed
45
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.9
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
215s
Control time
55s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Aliaskhab Khizriev

"Black Wolf"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
Blue corner

Denis Tiuliulin

0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34