Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rafa Garcia
Natan Levy
79%
21%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
27
Age
Δ 3y
30
L2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Garcia: 35 sig / 7 TD ·
Levy: 47 sig / 3 TD
Rafa Garcia
Natan Levy
50
Sig strikes landed
48
122
Sig strikes attempted
105
75
Total strikes landed
58
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.7
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
247s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Rafa Garcia
"Gifted"
19-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Stric…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
Blue corner
Natan Levy
"Lethal"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30