Back to UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez
Prelims1 Lightweight

Steve Garcia vs Charlie Ontiveros

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Steve Garcia
Charlie Ontiveros
86% 14%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
19-6
Career record
Δ 24 pp
11-10
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Garcia: 34 sig / 3 TD · Ontiveros: 7 sig / 0 TD
Steve Garcia
Charlie Ontiveros
25
Sig strikes landed
22
46
Sig strikes attempted
35
55
Total strikes landed
39
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
199s
Control time
307s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Steve Garcia

"Mean Machine"
19-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1

Charlie Ontiveros

"American Bad Boy"
11-10
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
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