Back to DWCS 5.3
Main Light Heavyweight

Jailton Almeida vs Nasrudin Nasrudinov

DWCS 5.3 ·Meta Apex
Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jailton Almeida
Nasrudin Nasrudinov
79% 21%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 8"
72"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Almeida: 2 sig / 3 TD · Nasrudinov: 7 sig / 1 TD
Jailton Almeida
Nasrudin Nasrudinov
40
Sig strikes landed
27
80
Sig strikes attempted
61
62
Total strikes landed
43
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
133s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Jailton Almeida

"Malhadinho"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner

Nasrudin Nasrudinov

0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30