Back to UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Mana Martinez vs Guido Cannetti

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Mana Martinez
Guido Cannetti
84% 16%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
25
Age
Δ 16y
42
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Martinez: 79 sig / 2 TD · Cannetti: 66 sig / 0 TD
Mana Martinez
Guido Cannetti
41
Sig strikes landed
34
75
Sig strikes attempted
54
68
Total strikes landed
43
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
137s
Control time
195s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
30%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Mana Martinez

"ManaBoi"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
L2

Guido Cannetti

"Ninja"
10-9
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
42
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