Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Julio Arce
Andre Ewell
75%
25%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
19-7
Career record
Δ 10 pp
17-10
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Arce: 42 sig / 0 TD ·
Ewell: 31 sig / 0 TD
Julio Arce
Andre Ewell
65
Sig strikes landed
64
153
Sig strikes attempted
161
77
Total strikes landed
74
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.1
3.2
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
114s
Control time
24s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Julio Arce
19-7
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
Blue corner
L1
Andre Ewell
"Mr. Highlight"
17-10
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—