Back to UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka
Prelims1 Featherweight

Luke Sanders vs Felipe Colares

UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Luke Sanders
Felipe Colares
50% 50%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
35
Age
Δ 8y
27
13-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
10-5
L1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sanders: 118 sig / 2 TD · Colares: 78 sig / 2 TD
Luke Sanders
Felipe Colares
32
Sig strikes landed
32
57
Sig strikes attempted
71
57
Total strikes landed
51
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.2
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
131s
Control time
178s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Luke Sanders

"Cool Hand"
13-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database 7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
W UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
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L UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
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W UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
Blue corner
L1

Felipe Colares

"Cabocao"
10-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
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W UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—