Back to UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland
Prelims2 Welterweight

Impa Kasanganay vs Sasha Palatnikov

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Impa Kasanganay
Sasha Palatnikov
59% 41%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
27
Age
Δ 5y
32
9-3
Career record
Δ 11 pp
7-4
L1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Kasanganay: 13 sig / 2 TD · Palatnikov: 13 sig / 0 TD
Impa Kasanganay
Sasha Palatnikov
62
Sig strikes landed
49
127
Sig strikes attempted
147
70
Total strikes landed
77
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
68s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
24%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Impa Kasanganay

"Tshilobo"
9-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
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W UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
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Blue corner
W1

Sasha Palatnikov

7-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
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