Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Marvin Vettori
Kevin Holland
45%
55%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 7"
81"
28
Age
Δ 1y
28
20-10-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
29-16
W4
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Vettori: 24 sig / 11 TD ·
Holland: 37 sig / 0 TD
Marvin Vettori
Kevin Holland
44
Sig strikes landed
60
102
Sig strikes attempted
128
74
Total strikes landed
85
2.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.0
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
275s
Control time
78s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Marvin Vettori
"The Italian Dream"
20-10-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
9 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
L1
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
29-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—