Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Serghei Spivac
Jared Vanderaa
80%
20%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
80"
26
Age
Δ 3y
29
W1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Spivac: 51 sig / 3 TD ·
Vanderaa: 13 sig / 0 TD
Serghei Spivac
Jared Vanderaa
35
Sig strikes landed
30
67
Sig strikes attempted
67
51
Total strikes landed
50
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
183s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Serghei Spivac
"Polar Bear"
19-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
W
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
Blue corner
Jared Vanderaa
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29