Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Deron Winn
Antonio Arroyo
59%
41%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
32
Age
32
7-4
Career record
Δ 4 pp
9-6
L2
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Winn: 20 sig / 12 TD ·
Arroyo: 45 sig / 0 TD
Deron Winn
Antonio Arroyo
31
Sig strikes landed
55
67
Sig strikes attempted
130
59
Total strikes landed
79
9.2
Takedowns landed
1.8
9.8
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
314s
Control time
193s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Deron Winn
7-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
Blue corner
L1
Antonio Arroyo
9-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—