Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Paul Felder
Rafael Dos Anjos
48%
52%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
37
Age
Δ 0y
36
17-7
Career record
Δ 7 pp
32-18
L1
Current streak
L2
14
UFC fights in our DB
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Felder: 98 sig / 1 TD ·
Dos Anjos: 92 sig / 6 TD
Paul Felder
Rafael Dos Anjos
57
Sig strikes landed
58
129
Sig strikes attempted
112
75
Total strikes landed
81
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.7
Takedowns attempted
5.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
141s
Control time
358s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Paul Felder
"The Irish Dragon"
17-7
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
L
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
Blue corner
L2
Rafael Dos Anjos
32-18
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
26 fights · 17-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
L
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—