Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard

PGA ·72 players ·Final

Pos	Player	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
—	Akshay Bhatia	-15	70	66	68	69	277.0
—	Daniel Berger	-14	63	68	72	70	278.0
—	Ludvig Åberg	-12	66	71	72	67	276.0
—	Cameron Young	-12	67	73	67	69	276.0
—	Collin Morikawa	-11	66	71	70	70	277.0
—	Sahith Theegala	-10	70	67	75	66	278.0
—	Russell Henley	-10	70	69	71	68	278.0
—	Min Woo Lee	-10	69	71	68	70	278.0
—	Harry Hall	-8	73	69	68	70	280.0
—	Rickie Fowler	-8	69	69	72	70	280.0
—	Adam Scott	-6	68	73	71	70	282.0
—	Jordan Spieth	-6	72	71	68	71	282.0
—	Billy Horschel	-5	69	74	72	68	283.0
—	Maverick McNealy	-5	70	74	69	70	283.0
—	Si Woo Kim	-5	71	71	71	70	283.0
—	Viktor Hovland	-5	72	72	67	72	283.0
—	Sepp Straka	-5	72	69	66	76	283.0
—	Rory McIlroy	-4	72	68	—	—	140.0
—	Max Greyserman	-3	74	70	74	67	285.0
—	Kurt Kitayama	-3	69	74	71	71	285.0
—	Jacob Bridgeman	-3	75	69	69	72	285.0
—	Jhonattan Vegas	-3	67	76	69	73	285.0
—	Bud Cauley	-3	69	71	71	74	285.0
—	Chris Gotterup	-3	69	71	69	76	285.0
—	Lucas Glover	-2	73	73	70	70	286.0
—	Robert MacIntyre	-2	72	72	72	70	286.0
—	Nicolai Højgaard	-2	72	73	70	71	286.0
—	Ryan Fox	-2	68	72	75	71	286.0
—	Patrick Rodgers	-2	72	73	68	73	286.0
—	Alex Noren	-2	72	72	69	73	286.0
—	Harris English	-2	69	72	72	73	286.0
—	Scottie Scheffler	-2	70	71	72	73	286.0
—	Xander Schauffele	-2	68	71	73	74	286.0
—	Keith Mitchell	-1	69	76	73	69	287.0
—	Michael Kim	-1	75	69	71	72	287.0
—	Corey Conners	-1	69	74	72	72	287.0
—	Ryo Hisatsune	-1	71	71	72	73	287.0
—	Michael Thorbjornsen	-1	70	71	71	75	287.0
—	Nick Taylor	E	72	72	75	69	288.0
—	Taylor Pendrith	E	73	73	71	71	288.0
—	Andrew Novak	E	74	72	71	71	288.0
—	Hideki Matsuyama	+1	70	74	73	72	289.0
—	Matt McCarty	+1	75	70	71	73	289.0
—	Matt Fitzpatrick	+1	74	70	70	75	289.0
—	Nico Echavarria	+2	72	74	71	73	290.0
—	Taylor Moore	+2	71	74	72	73	290.0
—	Andrew Putnam	+2	73	71	73	73	290.0
—	Ryan Gerard	+3	77	70	—	—	147.0
—	Haotong Li	+3	77	70	—	—	147.0
—	Joel Dahmen	+3	75	72	—	—	147.0
—	Tom Hoge	+3	74	73	—	—	147.0
—	Shane Lowry	+3	74	73	—	—	147.0
—	J.J. Spaun	+3	73	74	—	—	147.0
—	Ben Griffin	+3	72	75	—	—	147.0
—	Brian Campbell	+3	71	76	—	—	147.0
—	Austin Smotherman	+3	74	71	22	—	167.0
—	Sungjae Im	+4	76	72	—	—	148.0
—	Jason Day	+4	74	74	—	—	148.0
—	Sam Burns	+4	74	74	—	—	148.0
—	Patrick Cantlay	+4	71	77	—	—	148.0
—	Chris Kirk	+5	73	72	75	73	293.0
—	Daniel Bennett	+5	71	71	77	74	293.0
—	Pierceson Coody	+5	79	70	—	—	149.0
—	Denny McCarthy	+5	72	77	—	—	149.0
—	Keegan Bradley	+5	71	78	—	—	149.0
—	Tommy Fleetwood	+6	76	69	76	73	294.0
—	Sam Stevens	+6	74	76	—	—	150.0
—	Justin Rose	+6	70	80	—	—	150.0
—	Brian Harman	+10	73	73	78	74	298.0
—	Aldrich Potgieter	+11	79	76	—	—	155.0
—	J.T. Poston	+12	75	81	—	—	156.0
—	Justin Thomas	+14	79	79	—	—	158.0

Statlab projections

Score regressor — MAE 3.32 strokes/round (naive 4.42; lift +1.10)

Rank	Player	Pred /rd	P(top-10)	P(win)	Actual /rd	Actual pos
1	Si Woo Kim	66.65	48%	1%	70.75	—
2	Jhonattan Vegas	67.56	7%	0%	71.25	—
3	Matt McCarty	68.03	21%	2%	72.25	—
4	Justin Rose	68.24	27%	1%	75.00	—
5	Harry Hall	68.67	20%	1%	70.00	—
6	Ryo Hisatsune	68.81	10%	1%	71.75	—
7	Haotong Li	68.88	9%	1%	73.50	—
8	Michael Thorbjornsen	68.89	12%	2%	71.75	—
9	Austin Smotherman	68.90	10%	0%	41.75	—
10	Jason Day	68.99	12%	0%	74.00	—
11	Nico Echavarria	69.05	14%	1%	72.50	—
12	Chris Gotterup	69.09	26%	2%	71.25	—
13	Ryan Gerard	69.12	22%	3%	73.50	—
14	Michael Kim	69.23	8%	0%	71.75	—
15	Andrew Putnam	69.28	2%	0%	72.50	—
16	Scottie Scheffler	69.34	44%	1%	71.50	—
17	Russell Henley	69.89	27%	2%	69.50	—
18	Corey Conners	70.21	7%	0%	71.75	—
19	Jordan Spieth	70.23	10%	1%	70.50	—
20	Rory McIlroy	70.24	13%	0%	35.00	—
21	Daniel Berger	70.26	10%	1%	55.60	—
22	Ryan Fox	70.33	14%	1%	71.50	—
23	Pierceson Coody	70.34	24%	2%	74.50	—
24	Shane Lowry	70.34	14%	1%	73.50	—
25	Collin Morikawa	70.36	10%	0%	69.25	—
26	Harris English	70.38	8%	0%	71.50	—
27	Jacob Bridgeman	70.38	13%	2%	71.25	—
28	Ludvig Åberg	70.56	10%	1%	69.00	—
29	Patrick Cantlay	70.59	14%	0%	74.00	—
30	Keegan Bradley	70.63	10%	0%	74.50	—

Per-player gradient-boosted regressor trained on 25960 player-tournament rows from 2020-2025. Features: rolling form (last 10 starts) + course history at this tournament. Sort ascending; lower projected = better expected finish.