Wednesday, December 3, 2025

Hero World Challenge

PGA ·20 players ·Final

Pos	Player	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
—	Hideki Matsuyama	-23	68	66	68	64	269.0
—	Alex Noren	-22	69	66	67	64	270.0
—	Sepp Straka	-21	66	69	64	68	267.0
—	J.J. Spaun	-20	66	68	69	65	268.0
—	Scottie Scheffler	-20	66	69	65	68	268.0
—	Justin Rose	-18	68	68	68	66	270.0
—	Corey Conners	-17	67	70	69	65	271.0
—	Harris English	-15	70	67	69	67	273.0
—	Wyndham Clark	-15	66	68	69	70	273.0
—	Cameron Young	-14	70	64	70	70	274.0
—	Sam Burns	-12	71	70	65	70	276.0
—	Robert MacIntyre	-11	73	67	69	68	277.0
—	Keegan Bradley	-10	67	72	69	70	278.0
—	Akshay Bhatia	-9	66	68	74	71	279.0
—	Billy Horschel	-7	71	68	69	73	281.0
—	Brian Harman	-6	72	70	71	69	282.0
—	Andrew Novak	-4	68	72	73	71	284.0
—	Aaron Rai	-3	71	71	71	72	285.0
—	Chris Gotterup	E	74	73	74	67	288.0
—	Jordan Spieth	E	72	73	70	73	288.0

Statlab projections

Score regressor — MAE 3.32 strokes/round (naive 4.42; lift +1.10)

Rank	Player	Pred /rd	P(top-10)	P(win)	Actual /rd	Actual pos
1	Sepp Straka	66.42	15%	1%	66.75	—
2	Scottie Scheffler	68.26	63%	39%	67.00	—
3	Andrew Novak	68.72	13%	1%	71.00	—
4	Akshay Bhatia	69.01	15%	1%	69.75	—
5	Brian Harman	69.17	9%	1%	70.50	—
6	Harris English	69.25	15%	1%	68.25	—
7	Hideki Matsuyama	69.33	26%	6%	53.80	—
8	Alex Noren	69.51	11%	0%	54.00	—
9	J.J. Spaun	69.52	15%	1%	67.00	—
10	Sam Burns	69.58	20%	2%	69.00	—
11	Cameron Young	69.61	26%	1%	68.50	—
12	Chris Gotterup	69.73	28%	2%	72.00	—
13	Justin Rose	69.76	13%	1%	67.50	—
14	Keegan Bradley	69.81	25%	1%	69.50	—
15	Robert MacIntyre	69.86	28%	6%	69.25	—
16	Jordan Spieth	70.73	15%	0%	72.00	—
17	Aaron Rai	70.83	29%	1%	71.25	—
18	Billy Horschel	70.90	8%	0%	70.25	—
19	Wyndham Clark	71.05	5%	0%	68.25	—
20	Corey Conners	71.25	10%	1%	67.75	—

Per-player gradient-boosted regressor trained on 25960 player-tournament rows from 2020-2025. Features: rolling form (last 10 starts) + course history at this tournament. Sort ascending; lower projected = better expected finish.