Wednesday, March 5, 2025

Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard

PGA ·72 players ·Final

Pos	Player	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
—	Russell Henley	-11	72	68	67	70	277.0
—	Collin Morikawa	-10	71	68	67	72	278.0
—	Corey Conners	-9	69	70	69	71	279.0
—	Michael Kim	-8	75	69	67	69	280.0
—	Keegan Bradley	-7	69	72	76	64	281.0
—	Sepp Straka	-7	77	66	69	69	281.0
—	Shane Lowry	-6	69	67	76	70	282.0
—	Byeong Hun An	-5	76	69	70	68	283.0
—	Justin Rose	-5	70	73	71	69	283.0
—	Jason Day	-5	76	64	69	74	283.0
—	Tommy Fleetwood	-4	75	72	69	68	284.0
—	Scottie Scheffler	-4	71	72	71	70	284.0
—	Aaron Rai	-4	74	72	67	71	284.0
—	Robert MacIntyre	-4	74	71	68	71	284.0
—	Jacob Bridgeman	-3	75	73	69	68	285.0
—	Daniel Berger	-3	78	69	68	70	285.0
—	Rory McIlroy	-3	70	70	73	72	285.0
—	Denny McCarthy	-2	73	73	73	67	286.0
—	Sungjae Im	-1	76	67	74	70	287.0
—	Si Woo Kim	-1	70	72	73	72	287.0
—	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	-1	69	75	70	73	287.0
—	Ludvig Åberg	E	72	71	77	68	288.0
—	Will Zalatoris	E	75	72	72	69	288.0
—	Chris Kirk	E	74	73	72	69	288.0
—	Hideki Matsuyama	E	73	72	74	69	288.0
—	Patrick Rodgers	E	74	74	70	70	288.0
—	Matt Fitzpatrick	E	78	69	69	72	288.0
—	Max Greyserman	E	70	71	75	72	288.0
—	Mackenzie Hughes	E	73	70	72	73	288.0
—	Wyndham Clark	E	67	71	76	74	288.0
—	Patrick Cantlay	+1	71	74	75	69	289.0
—	J.J. Spaun	+1	75	71	73	70	289.0
—	Nick Taylor	+1	75	72	69	73	289.0
—	Austin Eckroat	+2	74	70	75	71	290.0
—	Andrew Novak	+2	74	73	65	78	290.0
—	Lucas Glover	+3	77	70	71	73	291.0
—	Adam Scott	+3	75	72	70	74	291.0
—	Justin Thomas	+3	71	70	74	76	291.0
—	Tony Finau	+3	72	71	68	80	291.0
—	Xander Schauffele	+4	77	71	75	69	292.0
—	Sam Stevens	+4	78	70	74	70	292.0
—	Max McGreevy	+4	76	72	73	71	292.0
—	Brian Harman	+4	73	74	73	72	292.0
—	Tom Hoge	+4	73	72	70	77	292.0
—	Isaiah Salinda	+5	77	71	72	73	293.0
—	Adam Hadwin	+5	75	69	76	73	293.0
—	Ben Griffin	+5	75	72	72	74	293.0
—	Viktor Hovland	+5	77	72	—	—	149.0
—	Thomas Detry	+5	75	74	—	—	149.0
—	Joe Highsmith	+5	75	74	—	—	149.0
—	Sam Burns	+6	76	71	73	74	294.0
—	Jackson Koivun	+6	72	72	75	75	294.0
—	Stephan Jaeger	+6	78	72	—	—	150.0
—	Sahith Theegala	+6	78	72	—	—	150.0
—	Davis Thompson	+6	77	73	—	—	150.0
—	Harris English	+6	76	74	—	—	150.0
—	Cam Davis	+6	70	80	—	—	150.0
—	J.T. Poston	+7	76	71	75	73	295.0
—	Eric Cole	+7	74	71	76	74	295.0
—	Max Homa	+7	81	70	—	—	151.0
—	Min Woo Lee	+7	78	73	—	—	151.0
—	Aldrich Potgieter	+8	79	73	—	—	152.0
—	Taylor Pendrith	+8	79	73	—	—	152.0
—	Akshay Bhatia	+8	79	73	—	—	152.0
—	Cameron Young	+9	82	71	—	—	153.0
—	Brian Campbell	+9	79	74	—	—	153.0
—	Billy Horschel	+9	79	74	—	—	153.0
—	Maverick McNealy	+9	73	80	—	—	153.0
—	Tom Kim	+10	78	76	—	—	154.0
—	Nick Dunlap	+10	74	80	—	—	154.0
—	Rafael Campos	+12	80	76	—	—	156.0
—	Matthieu Pavon	+14	75	83	—	—	158.0

Statlab projections

Score regressor — MAE 3.32 strokes/round (naive 4.42; lift +1.10)

Rank	Player	Pred /rd	P(top-10)	P(win)	Actual /rd	Actual pos
1	Jason Day	68.07	46%	2%	70.75	—
2	Rafael Campos	68.53	6%	1%	78.00	—
3	Akshay Bhatia	68.71	21%	1%	76.00	—
4	Andrew Novak	68.71	13%	1%	72.50	—
5	Sam Stevens	68.80	13%	1%	73.00	—
6	Max Greyserman	68.81	27%	3%	72.00	—
7	Jacob Bridgeman	68.83	11%	1%	71.25	—
8	Joe Highsmith	68.86	14%	2%	74.50	—
9	Max McGreevy	68.88	8%	0%	73.00	—
10	Michael Kim	68.94	21%	1%	70.00	—
11	Daniel Berger	69.12	13%	1%	71.25	—
12	Byeong Hun An	69.14	14%	2%	70.75	—
13	Scottie Scheffler	69.25	27%	1%	71.00	—
14	Si Woo Kim	69.32	12%	0%	71.75	—
15	Justin Rose	69.48	41%	1%	70.75	—
16	Ludvig Åberg	69.63	23%	2%	72.00	—
17	Isaiah Salinda	69.65	8%	1%	73.25	—
18	Aldrich Potgieter	69.82	5%	0%	76.00	—
19	Ben Griffin	70.27	26%	1%	73.25	—
20	Xander Schauffele	70.29	28%	5%	73.00	—
21	Russell Henley	70.34	26%	42%	69.25	—
22	Shane Lowry	70.35	17%	1%	70.50	—
23	Tom Hoge	70.46	8%	0%	73.00	—
24	Justin Thomas	70.50	23%	4%	72.75	—
25	Sungjae Im	70.51	6%	0%	71.75	—
26	Corey Conners	70.54	9%	0%	69.75	—
27	Patrick Cantlay	70.56	25%	2%	72.25	—
28	Harris English	70.56	11%	0%	75.00	—
29	Rory McIlroy	70.56	22%	2%	71.25	—
30	Chris Kirk	70.66	6%	0%	72.00	—

Per-player gradient-boosted regressor trained on 25960 player-tournament rows from 2020-2025. Features: rolling form (last 10 starts) + course history at this tournament. Sort ascending; lower projected = better expected finish.