Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Hero World Challenge

PGA ·20 players ·Final

Pos	Player	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
—	Scottie Scheffler	-25	67	64	69	63	263.0
—	Tom Kim	-19	74	65	62	68	269.0
—	Justin Thomas	-18	66	67	66	71	270.0
—	Akshay Bhatia	-15	67	66	71	69	273.0
—	Keegan Bradley	-14	68	67	68	71	274.0
—	Ludvig Åberg	-12	67	70	72	67	276.0
—	Robert MacIntyre	-11	68	71	68	70	277.0
—	Sahith Theegala	-10	67	71	66	74	278.0
—	Sungjae Im	-8	69	68	72	71	280.0
—	Sepp Straka	-8	69	68	72	71	280.0
—	Patrick Cantlay	-7	67	71	71	72	281.0
—	Brian Harman	-6	70	72	72	68	282.0
—	Cameron Young	-5	64	75	72	72	283.0
—	Aaron Rai	-4	71	71	72	70	284.0
—	Sam Burns	-4	68	72	74	70	284.0
—	Nick Dunlap	-1	68	73	70	76	287.0
—	Matthieu Pavon	E	74	73	69	72	288.0
—	Wyndham Clark	E	73	70	71	74	288.0
—	Russell Henley	+1	69	71	79	70	289.0
—	Jason Day	+1	75	70	73	71	289.0

Statlab projections

Score regressor — MAE 3.32 strokes/round (naive 4.42; lift +1.10)

Rank	Player	Pred /rd	P(top-10)	P(win)	Actual /rd	Actual pos
1	Ludvig Åberg	68.13	23%	2%	69.00	—
2	Scottie Scheffler	68.38	82%	96%	65.75	—
3	Sepp Straka	69.00	15%	1%	70.00	—
4	Brian Harman	69.11	12%	1%	70.50	—
5	Patrick Cantlay	69.30	33%	2%	70.25	—
6	Robert MacIntyre	69.39	20%	2%	69.25	—
7	Justin Thomas	69.45	19%	1%	67.50	—
8	Aaron Rai	69.48	38%	1%	71.00	—
9	Sahith Theegala	69.62	14%	1%	69.50	—
10	Russell Henley	69.65	30%	1%	72.25	—
11	Akshay Bhatia	69.72	24%	1%	68.25	—
12	Sam Burns	69.72	35%	2%	71.00	—
13	Jason Day	69.84	16%	1%	72.25	—
14	Cameron Young	69.84	12%	1%	70.75	—
15	Nick Dunlap	69.96	11%	0%	71.75	—
16	Keegan Bradley	70.04	40%	1%	68.50	—
17	Matthieu Pavon	70.28	8%	1%	72.00	—
18	Sungjae Im	70.55	32%	1%	70.00	—
19	Tom Kim	70.67	14%	1%	67.25	—
20	Wyndham Clark	71.07	5%	0%	72.00	—

Per-player gradient-boosted regressor trained on 25960 player-tournament rows from 2020-2025. Features: rolling form (last 10 starts) + course history at this tournament. Sort ascending; lower projected = better expected finish.