Wednesday, August 21, 2024

BMW Championship

PGA ·50 players ·Final

Pos	Player	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
—	Keegan Bradley	-12	66	68	70	72	276.0
—	Sam Burns	-11	73	68	71	65	277.0
—	Ludvig Åberg	-11	72	63	71	71	277.0
—	Adam Scott	-11	68	63	74	72	277.0
—	Cam Davis	-8	72	70	72	66	280.0
—	Tommy Fleetwood	-8	72	69	70	69	280.0
—	Si Woo Kim	-8	69	70	71	70	280.0
—	Xander Schauffele	-8	69	73	67	71	280.0
—	Chris Kirk	-7	73	68	71	69	281.0
—	Alex Noren	-7	68	68	70	75	281.0
—	Rory McIlroy	-6	70	71	70	71	282.0
—	Sungjae Im	-6	68	70	73	71	282.0
—	Tony Finau	-5	70	73	72	68	283.0
—	Shane Lowry	-5	75	67	70	71	283.0
—	Byeong Hun An	-5	72	69	71	71	283.0
—	Will Zalatoris	-5	71	69	72	71	283.0
—	Sepp Straka	-5	72	70	69	72	283.0
—	Tom Hoge	-5	72	68	71	72	283.0
—	Patrick Cantlay	-5	71	68	72	72	283.0
—	Taylor Pendrith	-5	72	65	73	73	283.0
—	Wyndham Clark	-5	72	68	69	74	283.0
—	Hideki Matsuyama	-5	67	—	—	—	67.0
—	Billy Horschel	-4	71	74	68	71	284.0
—	Russell Henley	-4	70	71	70	73	284.0
—	Corey Conners	-4	68	70	73	73	284.0
—	Brian Harman	-3	72	69	71	73	285.0
—	Denny McCarthy	-2	71	74	69	72	286.0
—	Viktor Hovland	-2	71	71	71	73	286.0
—	Matt Fitzpatrick	-1	74	72	71	70	287.0
—	Max Greyserman	-1	78	72	66	71	287.0
—	Collin Morikawa	-1	70	70	73	74	287.0
—	Thomas Detry	E	72	70	72	74	288.0
—	Nick Dunlap	E	69	72	70	77	288.0
—	Max Homa	+1	74	75	73	67	289.0
—	Matthieu Pavon	+1	73	72	76	68	289.0
—	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	+1	74	72	74	69	289.0
—	Jason Day	+1	78	69	71	71	289.0
—	Scottie Scheffler	+1	71	72	74	72	289.0
—	J.T. Poston	+1	70	74	70	75	289.0
—	Robert MacIntyre	+1	72	71	38	—	181.0
—	Justin Thomas	+2	76	72	74	68	290.0
—	Stephan Jaeger	+2	76	69	73	72	290.0
—	Davis Thompson	+3	76	74	69	72	291.0
—	Adam Hadwin	+3	76	68	75	72	291.0
—	Aaron Rai	+4	74	70	74	74	292.0
—	Cameron Young	+4	75	71	69	77	292.0
—	Akshay Bhatia	+5	72	68	76	77	293.0
—	Eric Cole	+7	77	68	78	72	295.0
—	Austin Eckroat	+7	71	73	74	77	295.0
—	Sahith Theegala	+11	73	71	79	76	299.0

Statlab projections

Score regressor — MAE 3.32 strokes/round (naive 4.42; lift +1.10)

Rank	Player	Pred /rd	P(top-10)	P(win)	Actual /rd	Actual pos
1	Hideki Matsuyama	67.00	34%	3%	22.33	—
2	Will Zalatoris	68.22	4%	0%	70.75	—
3	Scottie Scheffler	68.25	47%	8%	72.25	—
4	Xander Schauffele	68.40	75%	10%	70.00	—
5	Stephan Jaeger	68.56	9%	0%	72.50	—
6	Thomas Detry	68.73	13%	1%	72.00	—
7	Matt Fitzpatrick	68.77	22%	2%	71.75	—
8	Austin Eckroat	68.78	12%	1%	73.75	—
9	Patrick Cantlay	68.80	40%	3%	70.75	—
10	Sungjae Im	68.83	16%	1%	70.50	—
11	Rory McIlroy	68.83	27%	2%	70.50	—
12	Viktor Hovland	68.88	23%	1%	71.50	—
13	Ludvig Åberg	68.88	24%	2%	69.25	—
14	Brian Harman	68.92	16%	0%	71.25	—
15	Akshay Bhatia	68.92	13%	1%	73.25	—
16	Sam Burns	68.92	26%	1%	69.25	—
17	Russell Henley	68.94	22%	1%	71.00	—
18	Alex Noren	68.99	19%	1%	70.25	—
19	Robert MacIntyre	69.00	13%	2%	45.25	—
20	Max Homa	69.01	10%	1%	72.25	—
21	Chris Kirk	69.02	11%	2%	70.25	—
22	Davis Thompson	69.06	25%	2%	72.75	—
23	Tommy Fleetwood	69.08	25%	2%	70.00	—
24	Corey Conners	69.12	12%	1%	71.00	—
25	Aaron Rai	69.12	24%	1%	73.00	—
26	Sahith Theegala	69.15	18%	2%	74.75	—
27	Tony Finau	69.15	14%	1%	70.75	—
28	Denny McCarthy	69.15	10%	1%	71.50	—
29	Sepp Straka	69.18	13%	1%	70.75	—
30	Cameron Young	69.18	16%	2%	73.00	—

Per-player gradient-boosted regressor trained on 25960 player-tournament rows from 2020-2025. Features: rolling form (last 10 starts) + course history at this tournament. Sort ascending; lower projected = better expected finish.