Wednesday, March 6, 2024

Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard

PGA ·69 players ·Final

Pos	Player	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
—	Scottie Scheffler	-15	70	67	70	66	273.0
—	Wyndham Clark	-10	71	66	71	70	278.0
—	Shane Lowry	-9	66	71	70	72	279.0
—	Will Zalatoris	-7	69	69	71	72	281.0
—	Russell Henley	-7	68	69	72	72	281.0
—	Sahith Theegala	-5	68	72	75	68	283.0
—	Brendon Todd	-5	74	67	72	70	283.0
—	Byeong Hun An	-4	71	69	76	68	284.0
—	Andrew Putnam	-4	71	71	72	70	284.0
—	Emiliano Grillo	-4	69	70	74	71	284.0
—	Max Homa	-4	71	69	71	73	284.0
—	Nick Taylor	-3	69	71	74	71	285.0
—	Brian Harman	-3	69	68	77	71	285.0
—	Lee Hodges	-3	68	73	72	72	285.0
—	Tom Hoge	-3	72	71	69	73	285.0
—	Justin Thomas	-3	69	71	72	73	285.0
—	Hideki Matsuyama	-3	67	70	72	76	285.0
—	Cam Davis	-2	72	70	74	70	286.0
—	Corey Conners	-2	70	71	71	74	286.0
—	Sungjae Im	-2	71	70	71	74	286.0
—	Séamus Power	-1	72	74	69	72	287.0
—	Eric Cole	-1	70	73	70	74	287.0
—	Rory McIlroy	-1	73	70	68	76	287.0
—	Harris English	-1	69	73	68	77	287.0
—	Patrick Rodgers	E	72	74	72	70	288.0
—	Xander Schauffele	E	72	70	76	70	288.0
—	Erik van Rooyen	E	72	73	72	71	288.0
—	Ludvig Åberg	E	73	74	69	72	288.0
—	Grayson Murray	E	72	73	71	72	288.0
—	Jordan Spieth	+1	69	74	77	69	289.0
—	Mackenzie Hughes	+1	75	71	71	72	289.0
—	Lucas Glover	+1	73	70	74	72	289.0
—	Si Woo Kim	+1	75	70	71	73	289.0
—	Webb Simpson	+1	73	71	70	75	289.0
—	Sam Burns	+1	68	72	71	78	289.0
—	Rickie Fowler	+2	75	72	71	72	290.0
—	Jason Day	+2	70	74	73	73	290.0
—	Patrick Cantlay	+2	74	72	70	74	290.0
—	Keegan Bradley	+2	71	75	70	74	290.0
—	Austin Eckroat	+2	72	69	74	75	290.0
—	Viktor Hovland	+2	71	69	75	75	290.0
—	Cameron Young	+2	73	70	71	76	290.0
—	Justin Lower	+2	67	76	69	78	290.0
—	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	+3	74	73	71	73	291.0
—	Min Woo Lee	+3	69	73	76	73	291.0
—	Chris Kirk	+3	69	74	72	76	291.0
—	Stephan Jaeger	+3	72	67	76	76	291.0
—	Nick Dunlap	+4	72	74	75	71	292.0
—	Denny McCarthy	+4	72	74	72	74	292.0
—	Taylor Moore	+4	72	71	73	76	292.0
—	Nicolai Højgaard	+4	77	71	—	—	148.0
—	Adam Schenk	+4	72	76	—	—	148.0
—	C.T. Pan	+5	71	70	78	74	293.0
—	Sami Välimäki	+5	76	73	—	—	149.0
—	Matt Fitzpatrick	+5	74	75	—	—	149.0
—	Adam Scott	+5	73	76	—	—	149.0
—	Justin Rose	+5	72	77	—	—	149.0
—	Adam Hadwin	+6	69	75	76	74	294.0
—	Matthieu Pavon	+6	74	68	76	76	294.0
—	Tom Kim	+6	73	74	70	77	294.0
—	Collin Morikawa	+6	70	80	—	—	150.0
—	Kurt Kitayama	+7	78	73	—	—	151.0
—	J.T. Poston	+8	71	74	75	76	296.0
—	Tommy Fleetwood	+9	73	80	—	—	153.0
—	Luke List	+10	69	78	72	79	298.0
—	David Ford	+10	71	83	—	—	154.0
—	Jake Knapp	+12	77	70	81	72	300.0
—	Sepp Straka	+12	69	73	78	80	300.0
—	Adam Svensson	+15	79	80	—	—	159.0

Statlab projections

Score regressor — MAE 3.32 strokes/round (naive 4.42; lift +1.10)

Rank	Player	Pred /rd	P(top-10)	P(win)	Actual /rd	Actual pos
1	Byeong Hun An	67.09	54%	5%	71.00	—
2	Austin Eckroat	69.00	14%	2%	72.50	—
3	Justin Rose	69.08	16%	1%	74.50	—
4	Si Woo Kim	69.24	14%	1%	72.25	—
5	Jason Day	69.30	31%	1%	72.50	—
6	Kurt Kitayama	69.52	16%	1%	75.50	—
7	Matthieu Pavon	69.53	13%	1%	73.50	—
8	Grayson Murray	69.66	6%	0%	72.00	—
9	Patrick Cantlay	69.88	23%	3%	72.50	—
10	Jordan Spieth	69.90	25%	1%	72.25	—
11	Rory McIlroy	69.99	18%	8%	71.75	—
12	Sami Välimäki	70.00	6%	0%	74.50	—
13	Nick Dunlap	70.08	4%	0%	73.00	—
14	Corey Conners	70.30	12%	0%	71.50	—
15	Scottie Scheffler	70.31	53%	58%	68.25	—
16	Jake Knapp	70.48	11%	4%	75.00	—
17	Harris English	70.49	15%	1%	71.75	—
18	Chris Kirk	70.52	15%	1%	72.75	—
19	Cameron Young	70.56	20%	1%	72.50	—
20	Matt Fitzpatrick	70.57	13%	0%	74.50	—
21	Justin Thomas	70.59	9%	1%	71.25	—
22	Tom Kim	70.60	17%	2%	73.50	—
23	Sungjae Im	70.62	10%	0%	71.50	—
24	Ludvig Åberg	70.62	27%	1%	72.00	—
25	Russell Henley	70.64	17%	1%	70.25	—
26	Viktor Hovland	70.97	16%	0%	72.50	—
27	Webb Simpson	70.97	5%	0%	72.25	—
28	Max Homa	70.99	18%	1%	71.00	—
29	Patrick Rodgers	71.02	6%	0%	72.00	—
30	Keegan Bradley	71.03	15%	1%	72.50	—

Per-player gradient-boosted regressor trained on 25960 player-tournament rows from 2020-2025. Features: rolling form (last 10 starts) + course history at this tournament. Sort ascending; lower projected = better expected finish.