Wednesday, January 3, 2024

The Sentry

PGA ·59 players ·Final

Pos	Player	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
—	Chris Kirk	-29	67	65	66	65	263.0
—	Sahith Theegala	-28	64	69	68	63	264.0
—	Jordan Spieth	-27	66	67	67	65	265.0
—	Byeong Hun An	-26	68	64	68	66	266.0
—	Sungjae Im	-25	65	66	73	63	267.0
—	Brian Harman	-25	67	66	70	64	267.0
—	J.T. Poston	-25	68	68	66	65	267.0
—	Collin Morikawa	-25	65	67	70	65	267.0
—	Scottie Scheffler	-25	66	64	71	66	267.0
—	Jason Day	-24	65	69	67	67	268.0
—	Xander Schauffele	-24	66	69	65	68	268.0
—	Sepp Straka	-23	67	66	70	66	269.0
—	Patrick Cantlay	-23	66	68	68	67	269.0
—	Adam Hadwin	-22	70	66	70	64	270.0
—	Eric Cole	-22	70	66	69	65	270.0
—	Max Homa	-22	67	69	68	66	270.0
—	Patrick Rodgers	-22	69	65	70	66	270.0
—	Tyrrell Hatton	-22	69	62	72	67	270.0
—	Matt Fitzpatrick	-22	69	64	69	68	270.0
—	Harris English	-22	71	66	64	69	270.0
—	Akshay Bhatia	-22	69	64	66	71	270.0
—	Erik van Rooyen	-21	72	65	69	65	271.0
—	Luke List	-21	67	70	68	66	271.0
—	Viktor Hovland	-21	65	67	72	67	271.0
—	Mackenzie Hughes	-20	68	70	70	64	272.0
—	Taylor Moore	-20	71	65	70	66	272.0
—	Si Woo Kim	-20	70	66	70	66	272.0
—	Nico Echavarria	-20	70	67	68	67	272.0
—	Wyndham Clark	-19	71	68	71	63	273.0
—	Kurt Kitayama	-19	72	64	71	66	273.0
—	Lucas Glover	-19	72	66	68	67	273.0
—	Adam Schenk	-19	69	65	70	69	273.0
—	Cameron Young	-18	68	67	74	65	274.0
—	Corey Conners	-18	69	70	68	67	274.0
—	Adam Svensson	-18	70	68	68	68	274.0
—	Sam Burns	-18	69	68	68	69	274.0
—	Brendon Todd	-18	67	64	73	70	274.0
—	Tom Hoge	-17	67	69	71	68	275.0
—	Tony Finau	-17	69	66	71	69	275.0
—	Justin Rose	-16	71	69	75	61	276.0
—	Andrew Putnam	-16	74	71	67	64	276.0
—	Matt Wallace	-16	68	70	69	69	276.0
—	Denny McCarthy	-15	70	69	71	67	277.0
—	Emiliano Grillo	-15	66	68	72	71	277.0
—	Tom Kim	-14	68	70	74	66	278.0
—	Keegan Bradley	-14	69	70	72	67	278.0
—	Ludvig Åberg	-13	69	70	77	63	279.0
—	Nick Hardy	-13	71	67	75	66	279.0
—	Tommy Fleetwood	-13	70	70	69	70	279.0
—	Séamus Power	-12	71	71	71	67	280.0
—	Camilo Villegas	-12	65	71	74	70	280.0
—	Davis Riley	-11	70	71	76	64	281.0
—	Cam Davis	-11	75	68	73	65	281.0
—	Russell Henley	-11	69	72	72	68	281.0
—	Nick Taylor	-11	69	69	73	70	281.0
—	Rickie Fowler	-10	70	67	75	70	282.0
—	Lee Hodges	-9	72	65	77	69	283.0
—	Hideki Matsuyama	-8	71	68	76	69	284.0
—	Vincent Norrman	-6	73	70	74	69	286.0

Statlab projections

Score regressor — MAE 3.32 strokes/round (naive 4.42; lift +1.10)

Rank	Player	Pred /rd	P(top-10)	P(win)	Actual /rd	Actual pos
1	Scottie Scheffler	67.78	74%	1%	66.75	—
2	Viktor Hovland	67.80	32%	1%	67.75	—
3	Davis Riley	68.47	5%	0%	70.25	—
4	Nico Echavarria	68.58	4%	0%	68.00	—
5	Kurt Kitayama	68.65	9%	0%	68.25	—
6	Matt Wallace	68.75	4%	0%	69.00	—
7	Tom Hoge	68.82	5%	0%	68.75	—
8	Eric Cole	68.97	28%	2%	67.50	—
9	Justin Rose	69.00	14%	1%	69.00	—
10	Si Woo Kim	69.08	10%	2%	68.00	—
11	Hideki Matsuyama	69.08	10%	1%	71.00	—
12	Sam Burns	69.10	19%	1%	68.50	—
13	Mackenzie Hughes	69.11	10%	0%	68.00	—
14	Akshay Bhatia	69.13	15%	1%	67.50	—
15	Tom Kim	69.25	23%	1%	69.50	—
16	Jordan Spieth	69.30	12%	1%	66.25	—
17	Keegan Bradley	69.31	20%	1%	69.50	—
18	Emiliano Grillo	69.34	10%	1%	69.25	—
19	Rickie Fowler	69.34	24%	2%	70.50	—
20	Tyrrell Hatton	69.36	31%	1%	67.50	—
21	Max Homa	69.37	25%	1%	67.50	—
22	Chris Kirk	69.39	7%	1%	65.75	—
23	Tony Finau	69.39	14%	1%	68.75	—
24	Taylor Moore	69.44	10%	1%	68.00	—
25	Sungjae Im	69.51	17%	1%	66.75	—
26	J.T. Poston	69.51	25%	2%	66.75	—
27	Adam Schenk	69.51	10%	1%	68.25	—
28	Corey Conners	69.51	19%	1%	68.50	—
29	Andrew Putnam	69.51	14%	1%	69.00	—
30	Harris English	69.55	11%	1%	67.50	—

Per-player gradient-boosted regressor trained on 25960 player-tournament rows from 2020-2025. Features: rolling form (last 10 starts) + course history at this tournament. Sort ascending; lower projected = better expected finish.