Wednesday, November 29, 2023

Hero World Challenge

PGA ·20 players ·Final

Pos	Player	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
—	Scottie Scheffler	-20	69	66	65	68	268.0
—	Sepp Straka	-17	72	67	68	64	271.0
—	Justin Thomas	-16	70	67	68	67	272.0
—	Tony Finau	-15	67	71	68	67	273.0
—	Matt Fitzpatrick	-15	70	68	65	70	273.0
—	Jordan Spieth	-14	68	67	71	68	274.0
—	Collin Morikawa	-12	69	69	70	68	276.0
—	Justin Rose	-11	72	71	68	66	277.0
—	Brian Harman	-11	67	69	71	70	277.0
—	Viktor Hovland	-9	73	73	70	63	279.0
—	Jason Day	-8	71	69	66	74	280.0
—	Lucas Glover	-7	71	71	69	70	281.0
—	Keegan Bradley	-6	72	74	68	68	282.0
—	Max Homa	-6	69	73	71	69	282.0
—	Cameron Young	-5	69	71	69	74	283.0
—	Sam Burns	-4	71	76	68	69	284.0
—	Rickie Fowler	-2	74	70	73	69	286.0
—	Tiger Woods	E	75	70	71	72	288.0
—	Wyndham Clark	+2	76	73	71	70	290.0
—	Will Zalatoris	+11	81	68	79	71	299.0

Statlab projections

Score regressor — MAE 3.32 strokes/round (naive 4.42; lift +1.10)

Rank	Player	Pred /rd	P(top-10)	P(win)	Actual /rd	Actual pos
1	Viktor Hovland	68.51	65%	10%	69.75	—
2	Scottie Scheffler	68.54	82%	82%	67.00	—
3	Cameron Young	68.95	13%	3%	70.75	—
4	Brian Harman	69.01	31%	3%	69.25	—
5	Lucas Glover	69.49	24%	2%	70.25	—
6	Collin Morikawa	69.50	28%	2%	69.00	—
7	Justin Thomas	69.59	6%	0%	68.00	—
8	Sam Burns	69.61	23%	1%	71.00	—
9	Tony Finau	69.61	12%	2%	68.25	—
10	Keegan Bradley	69.68	13%	1%	70.50	—
11	Jason Day	69.70	12%	0%	70.00	—
12	Rickie Fowler	69.70	26%	2%	71.50	—
13	Will Zalatoris	69.71	11%	1%	74.75	—
14	Justin Rose	69.81	14%	1%	69.25	—
15	Wyndham Clark	69.82	36%	1%	72.50	—
16	Tiger Woods	70.32	2%	0%	72.00	—
17	Matt Fitzpatrick	70.35	20%	2%	68.25	—
18	Sepp Straka	70.75	23%	1%	67.75	—
19	Max Homa	71.39	16%	1%	70.50	—
20	Jordan Spieth	71.65	9%	0%	68.50	—

Per-player gradient-boosted regressor trained on 25960 player-tournament rows from 2020-2025. Features: rolling form (last 10 starts) + course history at this tournament. Sort ascending; lower projected = better expected finish.