Wednesday, August 23, 2023

TOUR Championship

PGA ·30 players ·Final

Pos	Player	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
—	Viktor Hovland	-27	68	64	66	63	261.0
—	Xander Schauffele	-22	67	64	68	62	261.0
—	Wyndham Clark	-16	68	67	68	65	268.0
—	Rory McIlroy	-14	70	67	71	65	273.0
—	Patrick Cantlay	-13	69	68	68	66	271.0
—	Tommy Fleetwood	-11	71	70	65	66	272.0
—	Scottie Scheffler	-11	71	65	73	70	279.0
—	Collin Morikawa	-11	61	64	73	72	270.0
—	Sam Burns	-10	66	66	71	67	270.0
—	Max Homa	-10	70	67	69	68	274.0
—	Matt Fitzpatrick	-10	67	68	71	68	274.0
—	Adam Schenk	-10	63	70	69	69	271.0
—	Keegan Bradley	-10	63	67	70	73	273.0
—	Russell Henley	-9	65	71	72	66	274.0
—	Sepp Straka	-9	66	71	65	69	271.0
—	Rickie Fowler	-8	68	73	68	66	275.0
—	Tyrrell Hatton	-8	64	67	72	69	272.0
—	Lucas Glover	-7	72	67	69	70	278.0
—	Jon Rahm	-7	69	65	71	74	279.0
—	Si Woo Kim	-6	70	72	68	66	276.0
—	Tom Kim	-6	67	70	72	67	276.0
—	Tony Finau	-6	70	68	70	68	276.0
—	Brian Harman	-4	68	70	70	72	280.0
—	Sungjae Im	-3	71	71	68	69	279.0
—	Nick Taylor	-2	71	67	69	72	279.0
—	Corey Conners	-1	70	71	66	74	281.0
—	Jordan Spieth	+1	69	71	70	71	281.0
—	Jason Day	+3	67	70	74	73	284.0
—	Taylor Moore	+6	71	75	72	69	287.0
—	Emiliano Grillo	+6	73	72	70	71	286.0

Statlab projections

Score regressor — MAE 3.32 strokes/round (naive 4.42; lift +1.10)

Rank	Player	Pred /rd	P(top-10)	P(win)	Actual /rd	Actual pos
1	Rory McIlroy	68.17	66%	4%	68.25	—
2	Scottie Scheffler	68.26	80%	4%	69.75	—
3	Xander Schauffele	68.58	60%	6%	65.25	—
4	Max Homa	68.66	41%	3%	68.50	—
5	Tyrrell Hatton	68.68	21%	2%	68.00	—
6	Taylor Moore	68.72	9%	1%	71.75	—
7	Jon Rahm	68.72	32%	3%	69.75	—
8	Sepp Straka	68.75	23%	1%	67.75	—
9	Viktor Hovland	68.76	42%	36%	65.25	—
10	Sungjae Im	68.83	18%	2%	69.75	—
11	Tom Kim	68.83	14%	1%	69.00	—
12	Patrick Cantlay	68.89	30%	1%	67.75	—
13	Tony Finau	68.89	14%	1%	69.00	—
14	Jordan Spieth	68.93	17%	1%	70.25	—
15	Jason Day	68.98	9%	1%	71.00	—
16	Nick Taylor	68.98	10%	0%	69.75	—
17	Adam Schenk	69.00	12%	1%	67.75	—
18	Emiliano Grillo	69.00	14%	1%	71.50	—
19	Russell Henley	69.00	23%	1%	68.50	—
20	Lucas Glover	69.03	20%	2%	69.50	—
21	Brian Harman	69.05	23%	1%	70.00	—
22	Wyndham Clark	69.05	28%	1%	67.00	—
23	Tommy Fleetwood	69.06	28%	5%	68.00	—
24	Si Woo Kim	69.07	13%	1%	69.00	—
25	Keegan Bradley	69.08	14%	1%	68.25	—
26	Rickie Fowler	69.09	24%	2%	68.75	—
27	Corey Conners	69.12	23%	2%	70.25	—
28	Matt Fitzpatrick	69.18	14%	1%	68.50	—
29	Collin Morikawa	69.19	17%	2%	67.50	—
30	Sam Burns	69.19	14%	2%	67.50	—

Per-player gradient-boosted regressor trained on 25960 player-tournament rows from 2020-2025. Features: rolling form (last 10 starts) + course history at this tournament. Sort ascending; lower projected = better expected finish.