Wednesday, March 1, 2023

Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard

PGA ·120 players ·Final

Pos	Player	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
—	Kurt Kitayama	-9	67	68	72	72	279.0
—	Rory McIlroy	-8	73	69	68	70	280.0
—	Harris English	-8	69	72	69	70	280.0
—	Patrick Cantlay	-7	68	71	74	68	281.0
—	Jordan Spieth	-7	68	69	74	70	281.0
—	Tyrrell Hatton	-7	71	72	66	72	281.0
—	Scottie Scheffler	-7	68	72	68	73	281.0
—	Davis Riley	-6	70	69	77	66	282.0
—	Trey Mullinax	-6	69	73	71	69	282.0
—	Keegan Bradley	-5	68	77	71	67	283.0
—	Jason Day	-5	71	73	69	70	283.0
—	Cameron Young	-5	67	73	72	71	283.0
—	Viktor Hovland	-5	71	71	66	75	283.0
—	Ryan Fox	-4	73	73	71	67	284.0
—	Matt Fitzpatrick	-4	70	69	76	69	284.0
—	Francesco Molinari	-4	69	75	70	70	284.0
—	Sahith Theegala	-4	72	70	72	70	284.0
—	Ben Griffin	-4	69	72	73	70	284.0
—	Max Homa	-4	70	71	71	72	284.0
—	Pierceson Coody	-4	74	71	66	73	284.0
—	Sungjae Im	-3	71	71	72	71	285.0
—	Corey Conners	-3	72	66	75	72	285.0
—	Justin Thomas	-3	72	67	72	74	285.0
—	Webb Simpson	-2	72	72	76	66	286.0
—	Justin Suh	-2	69	73	73	71	286.0
—	Adam Svensson	-2	72	73	69	72	286.0
—	Keith Mitchell	-2	72	69	73	72	286.0
—	Thomas Detry	-2	69	72	73	72	286.0
—	Tony Finau	-2	70	72	71	73	286.0
—	Ludvig Åberg	-2	70	70	73	73	286.0
—	Adam Schenk	-1	68	75	72	72	287.0
—	Adam Scott	-1	69	71	75	72	287.0
—	Rickie Fowler	-1	68	73	73	73	287.0
—	Wyndham Clark	E	70	72	76	70	288.0
—	Tom Kim	E	72	70	76	70	288.0
—	Andrew Putnam	E	69	75	73	71	288.0
—	Aaron Baddeley	E	72	72	73	71	288.0
—	Danny Willett	E	70	73	71	74	288.0
—	Brendon Todd	+1	75	69	76	69	289.0
—	S.H. Kim	+1	72	74	73	70	289.0
—	Si Woo Kim	+1	71	74	74	70	289.0
—	Robby Shelton	+1	70	75	73	71	289.0
—	Matt NeSmith	+1	71	72	75	71	289.0
—	Emiliano Grillo	+1	70	74	73	72	289.0
—	Luke Donald	+1	71	72	74	72	289.0
—	Jon Rahm	+1	65	76	76	72	289.0
—	Chris Kirk	+1	67	75	74	73	289.0
—	Taylor Moore	+1	73	72	70	74	289.0
—	Martin Laird	+1	71	72	72	74	289.0
—	Taylor Montgomery	+1	75	67	73	74	289.0
—	Kyle Westmoreland	+1	69	76	69	75	289.0
—	Xander Schauffele	+1	68	70	75	76	289.0
—	Davis Thompson	+2	75	71	74	70	290.0
—	K.H. Lee	+2	70	75	74	71	290.0
—	Aaron Rai	+2	68	74	76	72	290.0
—	Will Zalatoris	+2	73	72	72	73	290.0
—	Ryan Palmer	+2	71	73	73	73	290.0
—	Russell Henley	+2	71	75	70	74	290.0
—	Padraig Harrington	+2	73	70	72	75	290.0
—	Ben Taylor	+2	72	71	71	76	290.0
—	Greyson Sigg	+3	71	73	77	70	291.0
—	Mackenzie Hughes	+3	74	71	74	72	291.0
—	Tommy Fleetwood	+3	73	71	74	73	291.0
—	Alex Noren	+3	73	73	70	75	291.0
—	Adam Hadwin	+3	77	70	—	—	147.0
—	Lucas Herbert	+3	74	73	—	—	147.0
—	J.J. Spaun	+3	74	73	—	—	147.0
—	Collin Morikawa	+3	74	73	—	—	147.0
—	Tom Hoge	+3	73	74	—	—	147.0
—	Garrick Higgo	+3	72	75	—	—	147.0
—	Kevin Streelman	+3	72	75	—	—	147.0
—	Cam Davis	+3	71	76	—	—	147.0
—	Peter Malnati	+3	71	76	—	—	147.0
—	Patton Kizzire	+3	70	77	—	—	147.0
—	Sepp Straka	+3	70	77	—	—	147.0
—	Byeong Hun An	+3	75	—	—	—	75.0
—	Cole Hammer	+4	71	73	75	73	292.0
—	David Lipsky	+4	72	73	69	78	292.0
—	Troy Merritt	+4	77	71	—	—	148.0
—	Thriston Lawrence	+4	76	72	—	—	148.0
—	Sam Ryder	+4	74	74	—	—	148.0
—	Nick Hardy	+4	74	74	—	—	148.0
—	Billy Horschel	+4	73	75	—	—	148.0
—	Patrick Rodgers	+4	72	76	—	—	148.0
—	Nick Taylor	+4	69	79	—	—	148.0
—	Shane Lowry	+5	72	70	80	71	293.0
—	Joseph Bramlett	+5	76	73	—	—	149.0
—	Scott Stallings	+5	75	74	—	—	149.0
—	Justin Rose	+5	75	74	—	—	149.0
—	Gary Woodland	+5	75	74	—	—	149.0
—	Hideki Matsuyama	+5	71	78	—	—	149.0
—	Justin Lower	+6	76	74	—	—	150.0
—	Hayden Buckley	+6	75	75	—	—	150.0
—	Beau Hossler	+6	75	75	—	—	150.0
—	Callum Tarren	+6	74	76	—	—	150.0
—	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	+6	73	77	—	—	150.0
—	Sam Burns	+7	77	74	—	—	151.0
—	Taylor Pendrith	+7	77	74	—	—	151.0
—	Charley Hoffman	+7	74	77	—	—	151.0
—	Chez Reavie	+7	72	79	—	—	151.0
—	Greg Koch	+8	75	71	76	74	296.0
—	Zach Johnson	+8	73	73	72	78	296.0
—	Aaron Wise	+8	79	73	—	—	152.0
—	Stewart Cink	+8	73	79	—	—	152.0
—	Eric Cole	+8	72	80	—	—	152.0
—	Kamaiu Johnson	+8	75	77	—	—	152.0
—	Alex Smalley	+9	80	73	—	—	153.0
—	Lee Hodges	+9	76	77	—	—	153.0
—	Lucas Glover	+9	74	79	—	—	153.0
—	Joel Dahmen	+9	74	79	—	—	153.0
—	Will Gordon	+10	73	72	84	69	298.0
—	David Lingmerth	+10	75	69	76	78	298.0
—	Luke List	+10	77	77	—	—	154.0
—	Min Woo Lee	+10	75	79	—	—	154.0
—	Ryan Brehm	+10	75	79	—	—	154.0
—	Adrian Meronk	+10	73	81	—	—	154.0
—	Tyson Alexander	+11	75	80	—	—	155.0
—	Séamus Power	+12	72	74	76	78	300.0
—	Kevin Kisner	+13	77	80	—	—	157.0
—	Brian Harman	+13	75	82	—	—	157.0

Statlab projections

Score regressor — MAE 3.32 strokes/round (naive 4.42; lift +1.10)

Rank	Player	Pred /rd	P(top-10)	P(win)	Actual /rd	Actual pos
1	Kamaiu Johnson	45.49	1%	0%	50.67	—
2	Pierceson Coody	65.75	3%	0%	71.00	—
3	Luke Donald	66.87	3%	0%	72.25	—
4	Justin Lower	67.67	7%	0%	75.00	—
5	Joseph Bramlett	67.86	10%	1%	74.50	—
6	Ryan Palmer	68.08	6%	0%	72.50	—
7	Kyle Westmoreland	68.08	4%	0%	72.25	—
8	Ryan Brehm	68.11	5%	0%	77.00	—
9	Kurt Kitayama	68.34	11%	1%	69.75	—
10	Thomas Detry	68.44	16%	2%	71.50	—
11	Nick Hardy	68.47	11%	1%	74.00	—
12	David Lingmerth	68.57	6%	0%	74.50	—
13	Callum Tarren	68.60	6%	0%	75.00	—
14	Ben Taylor	68.75	9%	1%	72.50	—
15	Webb Simpson	68.76	3%	0%	71.50	—
16	Justin Thomas	68.88	30%	3%	71.25	—
17	Aaron Baddeley	68.90	11%	1%	72.00	—
18	Tom Kim	68.97	26%	2%	72.00	—
19	Adrian Meronk	68.99	4%	0%	77.00	—
20	Si Woo Kim	69.01	18%	1%	72.25	—
21	S.H. Kim	69.01	8%	1%	72.25	—
22	Jason Day	69.05	33%	2%	70.75	—
23	Mackenzie Hughes	69.06	11%	1%	72.75	—
24	Patrick Cantlay	69.11	30%	4%	70.25	—
25	Ludvig Åberg	69.12	2%	0%	71.50	—
26	Justin Suh	69.24	9%	0%	71.50	—
27	Justin Rose	69.27	10%	0%	74.50	—
28	Cole Hammer	69.39	4%	0%	73.00	—
29	Ryan Fox	69.44	3%	0%	71.00	—
30	Taylor Montgomery	69.45	20%	4%	72.25	—

Per-player gradient-boosted regressor trained on 25960 player-tournament rows from 2020-2025. Features: rolling form (last 10 starts) + course history at this tournament. Sort ascending; lower projected = better expected finish.