Wednesday, January 4, 2023

Sentry Tournament of Champions

PGA ·39 players ·Final

Pos	Player	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
—	Jon Rahm	-27	64	71	67	63	265.0
—	Collin Morikawa	-25	64	66	65	72	267.0
—	Tom Hoge	-23	66	71	68	64	269.0
—	Max Homa	-23	70	70	63	66	269.0
—	Tom Kim	-22	65	69	68	68	270.0
—	J.J. Spaun	-22	64	68	69	69	270.0
—	Tony Finau	-21	67	69	69	66	271.0
—	K.H. Lee	-21	68	69	67	67	271.0
—	Matt Fitzpatrick	-21	66	69	66	70	271.0
—	Scottie Scheffler	-21	66	66	69	70	271.0
—	Will Zalatoris	-20	69	69	69	65	272.0
—	Luke List	-20	71	65	70	66	272.0
—	Cameron Young	-19	70	70	69	64	273.0
—	Jordan Spieth	-19	67	66	71	69	273.0
—	Sungjae Im	-19	66	72	65	70	273.0
—	Patrick Cantlay	-18	70	70	66	68	274.0
—	Brian Harman	-18	68	69	67	70	274.0
—	Viktor Hovland	-17	67	72	70	66	275.0
—	Corey Conners	-17	68	68	72	67	275.0
—	Aaron Wise	-17	66	70	70	69	275.0
—	Mackenzie Hughes	-16	66	74	71	65	276.0
—	Sepp Straka	-16	71	70	68	67	276.0
—	J.T. Poston	-16	68	69	68	71	276.0
—	Hideki Matsuyama	-16	67	70	67	72	276.0
—	Justin Thomas	-15	70	70	67	70	277.0
—	Scott Stallings	-15	67	72	68	70	277.0
—	Séamus Power	-15	68	69	70	70	277.0
—	Trey Mullinax	-14	69	70	70	69	278.0
—	Adam Scott	-13	70	68	72	69	279.0
—	Billy Horschel	-12	76	71	64	69	280.0
—	Russell Henley	-12	69	70	71	70	280.0
—	Sam Burns	-11	70	75	67	69	281.0
—	Sahith Theegala	-10	67	71	72	72	282.0
—	Keegan Bradley	-9	70	70	73	70	283.0
—	Chez Reavie	-7	71	73	73	68	285.0
—	Ryan Brehm	-7	68	71	68	78	285.0
—	Adam Svensson	-5	71	70	78	68	287.0
—	Chad Ramey	-2	71	76	72	71	290.0
—	Xander Schauffele	-2	70	32	—	—	102.0

Statlab projections

Score regressor — MAE 3.32 strokes/round (naive 4.42; lift +1.10)

Rank	Player	Pred /rd	P(top-10)	P(win)	Actual /rd	Actual pos
1	Xander Schauffele	65.53	45%	3%	34.00	—
2	Ryan Brehm	67.43	2%	0%	71.25	—
3	Chad Ramey	67.46	4%	0%	72.50	—
4	Luke List	67.85	4%	0%	68.00	—
5	Tony Finau	67.85	44%	2%	67.75	—
6	Patrick Cantlay	68.21	38%	4%	68.50	—
7	Trey Mullinax	68.68	13%	1%	69.50	—
8	Will Zalatoris	68.76	29%	2%	68.00	—
9	Hideki Matsuyama	68.77	11%	1%	69.00	—
10	Adam Svensson	68.97	13%	1%	71.75	—
11	Sam Burns	69.05	13%	1%	70.25	—
12	Tom Hoge	69.16	16%	1%	67.25	—
13	Sungjae Im	69.17	28%	2%	68.25	—
14	Sahith Theegala	69.22	18%	1%	70.50	—
15	Justin Thomas	69.22	20%	2%	69.25	—
16	Jon Rahm	69.22	48%	63%	66.25	—
17	Collin Morikawa	69.28	25%	2%	66.75	—
18	Adam Scott	69.37	20%	1%	69.75	—
19	J.J. Spaun	69.38	15%	1%	67.50	—
20	Séamus Power	69.55	14%	2%	69.25	—
21	Aaron Wise	69.55	16%	1%	68.75	—
22	Scottie Scheffler	69.58	27%	2%	67.75	—
23	Tom Kim	69.58	35%	1%	67.50	—
24	Matt Fitzpatrick	69.59	35%	1%	67.75	—
25	K.H. Lee	69.59	13%	0%	67.75	—
26	Billy Horschel	69.61	15%	2%	70.00	—
27	Jordan Spieth	69.66	13%	1%	68.25	—
28	Max Homa	69.66	36%	3%	67.25	—
29	Viktor Hovland	69.66	21%	2%	68.75	—
30	Cameron Young	69.67	14%	1%	68.25	—

Per-player gradient-boosted regressor trained on 25960 player-tournament rows from 2020-2025. Features: rolling form (last 10 starts) + course history at this tournament. Sort ascending; lower projected = better expected finish.