Wednesday, April 5, 2023

Masters Tournament

PGA ·88 players ·Final

Pos	Player	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
—	Jon Rahm	-12	65	69	73	69	276.0
—	Phil Mickelson	-8	71	69	75	65	280.0
—	Brooks Koepka	-8	65	67	73	75	280.0
—	Jordan Spieth	-7	69	70	76	66	281.0
—	Patrick Reed	-7	71	70	72	68	281.0
—	Russell Henley	-7	73	67	71	70	281.0
—	Cameron Young	-6	67	72	75	68	282.0
—	Viktor Hovland	-6	65	73	70	74	282.0
—	Sahith Theegala	-5	73	70	73	67	283.0
—	Scottie Scheffler	-4	68	75	71	70	284.0
—	Matt Fitzpatrick	-4	70	72	72	70	284.0
—	Xander Schauffele	-4	68	74	71	71	284.0
—	Collin Morikawa	-4	69	69	74	72	284.0
—	Gary Woodland	-3	68	72	73	72	285.0
—	Patrick Cantlay	-3	71	71	68	75	285.0
—	Tom Kim	-2	70	72	74	70	286.0
—	Sungjae Im	-2	71	76	67	72	286.0
—	Joaquín Niemann	-2	71	69	74	72	286.0
—	Shane Lowry	-2	68	72	73	73	286.0
—	Justin Rose	-2	69	71	73	73	286.0
—	Sam Bennett	-2	68	68	76	74	286.0
—	Hideki Matsuyama	-2	71	70	70	75	286.0
—	Chris Kirk	-1	70	74	72	71	287.0
—	Keegan Bradley	-1	70	72	74	71	287.0
—	K.H. Lee	-1	74	67	74	72	287.0
—	Scott Stallings	E	70	77	69	72	288.0
—	Tony Finau	E	69	74	73	72	288.0
—	Ryan Fox	E	70	71	74	73	288.0
—	Will Zalatoris	E	—	—	—	—	—
—	Mackenzie Hughes	+1	76	69	74	70	289.0
—	Harold Varner III	+1	72	71	76	70	289.0
—	Si Woo Kim	+1	73	72	72	72	289.0
—	Sam Burns	+1	68	71	78	72	289.0
—	Tommy Fleetwood	+3	72	71	74	74	291.0
—	J.T. Poston	+4	74	72	76	70	292.0
—	Talor Gooch	+4	72	74	73	73	292.0
—	Zach Johnson	+4	75	70	74	73	292.0
—	Cameron Smith	+4	70	72	75	75	292.0
—	Tyrrell Hatton	+4	71	73	72	76	292.0
—	Bryson DeChambeau	+4	74	74	—	—	148.0
—	Tom Hoge	+4	74	74	—	—	148.0
—	Francesco Molinari	+4	72	76	—	—	148.0
—	Mike Weir	+4	72	76	—	—	148.0
—	Justin Thomas	+4	70	78	—	—	148.0
—	Kevin Na	+4	40	—	—	—	40.0
—	Adam Scott	+5	68	74	77	74	293.0
—	Abraham Ancer	+5	72	71	74	76	293.0
—	Taylor Moore	+5	73	72	70	78	293.0
—	Jason Day	+5	67	72	74	80	293.0
—	Bernhard Langer	+5	75	74	—	—	149.0
—	Ben Carr	+5	75	74	—	—	149.0
—	Adrian Meronk	+5	73	76	—	—	149.0
—	Rory McIlroy	+5	72	77	—	—	149.0
—	Kevin Kisner	+5	72	77	—	—	149.0
—	Mito Pereira	+6	74	70	77	73	294.0
—	Harris English	+6	71	71	77	75	294.0
—	Max Homa	+6	71	73	72	78	294.0
—	Cameron Champ	+6	76	74	—	—	150.0
—	Kazuki Higa	+6	76	74	—	—	150.0
—	Danny Willett	+6	75	75	—	—	150.0
—	Vijay Singh	+6	75	75	—	—	150.0
—	Min Woo Lee	+6	75	75	—	—	150.0
—	Séamus Power	+7	73	72	73	77	295.0
—	Sepp Straka	+7	70	73	74	78	295.0
—	Aldrich Potgieter	+7	77	74	—	—	151.0
—	Brian Harman	+7	77	74	—	—	151.0
—	Matthew McClean	+7	77	74	—	—	151.0
—	Mateo Fernández de Oliveira	+7	76	75	—	—	151.0
—	Sergio García	+7	74	77	—	—	151.0
—	Louis Oosthuizen	+7	76	71	—	—	147.0
—	Dustin Johnson	+8	71	72	78	75	296.0
—	Thomas Pieters	+8	74	73	72	77	296.0
—	Harrison Crowe	+8	75	77	—	—	152.0
—	Kurt Kitayama	+8	75	77	—	—	152.0
—	Corey Conners	+8	73	79	—	—	152.0
—	Jason Kokrak	+8	73	79	—	—	152.0
—	Fred Couples	+9	71	74	76	76	297.0
—	Charl Schwartzel	+9	74	73	73	77	297.0
—	Alex Noren	+9	78	75	—	—	153.0
—	Gordon Sargent	+9	77	76	—	—	153.0
—	Bubba Watson	+9	77	76	—	—	153.0
—	Tiger Woods	+9	74	73	34	—	181.0
—	José María Olazábal	+10	77	77	—	—	154.0
—	Adam Svensson	+11	75	80	—	—	155.0
—	Billy Horschel	+12	73	74	74	79	300.0
—	Keith Mitchell	+14	75	71	77	79	302.0
—	Larry Mize	+15	79	80	—	—	159.0
—	Sandy Lyle	+20	81	83	—	—	164.0

Statlab projections

Score regressor — MAE 3.32 strokes/round (naive 4.42; lift +1.10)

Rank	Player	Pred /rd	P(top-10)	P(win)	Actual /rd	Actual pos
1	Kazuki Higa	67.70	3%	0%	75.00	—
2	Taylor Moore	67.97	10%	1%	73.25	—
3	Alex Noren	68.14	12%	1%	76.50	—
4	Scott Stallings	68.32	7%	1%	72.00	—
5	Phil Mickelson	68.42	3%	0%	70.00	—
6	Ryan Fox	68.83	5%	1%	72.00	—
7	J.T. Poston	68.84	11%	1%	73.00	—
8	Kurt Kitayama	68.86	11%	1%	76.00	—
9	Mito Pereira	68.94	7%	1%	73.50	—
10	Harris English	69.00	7%	0%	73.50	—
11	Louis Oosthuizen	69.07	4%	0%	73.50	—
12	Adam Svensson	69.08	13%	2%	77.50	—
13	Chris Kirk	69.09	12%	1%	71.75	—
14	Scottie Scheffler	69.13	72%	6%	71.00	—
15	Keith Mitchell	69.41	14%	1%	75.50	—
16	Tom Kim	69.55	20%	2%	71.50	—
17	Adrian Meronk	69.55	4%	0%	74.50	—
18	Jason Day	69.58	25%	2%	73.25	—
19	Will Zalatoris	69.59	20%	2%	—	—
20	Sahith Theegala	69.60	22%	2%	70.75	—
21	Keegan Bradley	69.61	13%	1%	71.75	—
22	Rory McIlroy	69.93	28%	5%	74.50	—
23	Corey Conners	70.35	19%	1%	76.00	—
24	Collin Morikawa	70.65	31%	3%	71.00	—
25	Tommy Fleetwood	70.77	18%	2%	72.75	—
26	Hideki Matsuyama	70.78	8%	1%	71.50	—
27	Shane Lowry	70.87	13%	1%	71.50	—
28	Justin Thomas	70.90	22%	1%	74.00	—
29	Larry Mize	70.91	2%	0%	79.50	—
30	Cameron Smith	70.92	25%	2%	73.00	—

Per-player gradient-boosted regressor trained on 25960 player-tournament rows from 2020-2025. Features: rolling form (last 10 starts) + course history at this tournament. Sort ascending; lower projected = better expected finish.