Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Hero World Challenge

PGA ·20 players ·Final

Pos	Player	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
—	Viktor Hovland	-16	69	70	64	69	272.0
—	Scottie Scheffler	-14	72	68	66	68	274.0
—	Cameron Young	-12	71	69	68	68	276.0
—	Xander Schauffele	-11	72	68	69	68	277.0
—	Justin Thomas	-10	72	70	66	70	278.0
—	Collin Morikawa	-9	69	71	69	70	279.0
—	Tony Finau	-6	72	72	70	68	282.0
—	Sungjae Im	-5	74	71	70	68	283.0
—	Jon Rahm	-5	73	71	68	71	283.0
—	Tom Kim	-4	69	72	74	69	284.0
—	Sepp Straka	-4	69	74	70	71	284.0
—	Sam Burns	-2	70	75	69	72	286.0
—	Matt Fitzpatrick	-1	74	70	76	67	287.0
—	Billy Horschel	-1	73	70	72	72	287.0
—	Jordan Spieth	+1	76	72	72	69	289.0
—	Corey Conners	+2	75	76	72	67	290.0
—	Max Homa	+4	71	78	71	72	292.0
—	Shane Lowry	+5	74	77	71	71	293.0
—	Kevin Kisner	+6	74	72	77	71	294.0
—	Tommy Fleetwood	+7	71	76	72	76	295.0

Statlab projections

Score regressor — MAE 3.32 strokes/round (naive 4.42; lift +1.10)

Rank	Player	Pred /rd	P(top-10)	P(win)	Actual /rd	Actual pos
1	Xander Schauffele	68.82	50%	5%	69.25	—
2	Tommy Fleetwood	68.85	19%	1%	73.75	—
3	Kevin Kisner	68.89	9%	1%	73.50	—
4	Shane Lowry	68.91	19%	1%	73.25	—
5	Sam Burns	68.95	14%	2%	71.50	—
6	Billy Horschel	69.01	12%	1%	71.75	—
7	Sepp Straka	69.07	9%	0%	71.00	—
8	Scottie Scheffler	69.19	37%	4%	68.50	—
9	Corey Conners	69.24	12%	1%	72.50	—
10	Viktor Hovland	69.25	17%	9%	68.00	—
11	Tony Finau	69.49	30%	4%	70.50	—
12	Justin Thomas	69.49	16%	1%	69.50	—
13	Collin Morikawa	69.51	15%	1%	69.75	—
14	Matt Fitzpatrick	69.57	27%	2%	71.75	—
15	Tom Kim	69.58	40%	2%	71.00	—
16	Sungjae Im	69.73	30%	2%	70.75	—
17	Max Homa	69.73	24%	2%	73.00	—
18	Jon Rahm	69.73	42%	2%	70.75	—
19	Cameron Young	69.75	15%	1%	69.00	—
20	Jordan Spieth	71.57	6%	1%	72.25	—

Per-player gradient-boosted regressor trained on 25960 player-tournament rows from 2020-2025. Features: rolling form (last 10 starts) + course history at this tournament. Sort ascending; lower projected = better expected finish.