Wednesday, December 1, 2021

Hero World Challenge

PGA ·20 players ·Final

Pos	Player	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
—	Viktor Hovland	-18	68	69	67	66	270.0
—	Scottie Scheffler	-17	71	68	66	66	271.0
—	Patrick Reed	-15	68	69	67	69	273.0
—	Sam Burns	-15	71	65	68	69	273.0
—	Justin Thomas	-14	67	72	71	64	274.0
—	Collin Morikawa	-14	68	66	64	76	274.0
—	Daniel Berger	-13	66	69	69	71	275.0
—	Tony Finau	-13	68	66	70	71	275.0
—	Justin Rose	-11	71	70	70	66	277.0
—	Tyrrell Hatton	-11	69	67	71	70	277.0
—	Brooks Koepka	-11	67	67	69	74	277.0
—	Xander Schauffele	-10	70	70	70	68	278.0
—	Matt Fitzpatrick	-10	71	70	68	69	278.0
—	Abraham Ancer	-8	66	73	72	69	280.0
—	Harris English	-8	75	70	63	72	280.0
—	Bryson DeChambeau	-8	69	64	73	74	280.0
—	Webb Simpson	-7	67	72	71	71	281.0
—	Rory McIlroy	-6	66	71	75	70	282.0
—	Henrik Stenson	+1	72	75	70	72	289.0
—	Jordan Spieth	+6	71	72	75	76	294.0

Statlab projections

Score regressor — MAE 3.32 strokes/round (naive 4.42; lift +1.10)

Rank	Player	Pred /rd	P(top-10)	P(win)	Actual /rd	Actual pos
1	Matt Fitzpatrick	67.29	7%	1%	69.50	—
2	Henrik Stenson	67.90	3%	0%	72.25	—
3	Justin Rose	68.06	12%	1%	69.25	—
4	Webb Simpson	68.06	18%	2%	70.25	—
5	Harris English	68.39	13%	4%	70.00	—
6	Scottie Scheffler	68.60	20%	2%	67.75	—
7	Justin Thomas	68.73	26%	2%	68.50	—
8	Xander Schauffele	68.82	22%	4%	69.50	—
9	Sam Burns	68.86	47%	3%	68.25	—
10	Daniel Berger	68.87	31%	2%	68.75	—
11	Patrick Reed	68.91	10%	1%	68.25	—
12	Viktor Hovland	68.92	21%	13%	67.50	—
13	Collin Morikawa	68.97	40%	5%	68.50	—
14	Tyrrell Hatton	68.98	11%	1%	69.25	—
15	Rory McIlroy	69.00	41%	2%	70.50	—
16	Jordan Spieth	69.02	29%	2%	73.50	—
17	Tony Finau	69.04	14%	2%	68.75	—
18	Abraham Ancer	69.04	15%	3%	70.00	—
19	Bryson DeChambeau	70.29	14%	2%	70.00	—
20	Brooks Koepka	70.29	9%	1%	69.25	—

Per-player gradient-boosted regressor trained on 25960 player-tournament rows from 2020-2025. Features: rolling form (last 10 starts) + course history at this tournament. Sort ascending; lower projected = better expected finish.