Wednesday, August 24, 2022

TOUR Championship

PGA ·29 players ·Final

Pos	Player	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
—	Rory McIlroy	-21	67	67	63	66	263.0
—	Sungjae Im	-20	67	65	66	66	264.0
—	Scottie Scheffler	-20	65	66	66	73	270.0
—	Xander Schauffele	-18	66	63	70	69	268.0
—	Max Homa	-17	71	62	66	66	265.0
—	Justin Thomas	-17	67	68	63	68	266.0
—	Sepp Straka	-16	68	68	64	68	268.0
—	Patrick Cantlay	-16	70	66	66	70	272.0
—	Tony Finau	-15	72	66	67	64	269.0
—	Tom Hoge	-14	66	66	66	69	267.0
—	Joaquín Niemann	-13	64	67	69	69	269.0
—	Hideki Matsuyama	-13	70	66	63	70	269.0
—	Jordan Spieth	-12	68	68	69	65	270.0
—	Aaron Wise	-12	65	67	66	70	268.0
—	Viktor Hovland	-11	71	68	67	65	271.0
—	J.T. Poston	-11	65	69	66	69	269.0
—	Matt Fitzpatrick	-11	64	71	67	70	272.0
—	Jon Rahm	-11	67	63	71	71	272.0
—	Cameron Young	-10	67	67	70	69	273.0
—	Cameron Smith	-9	67	71	68	69	275.0
—	Brian Harman	-8	68	70	68	67	273.0
—	Billy Horschel	-8	68	70	66	69	273.0
—	Collin Morikawa	-8	66	69	65	73	273.0
—	Sam Burns	-7	69	74	67	68	278.0
—	Adam Scott	-4	68	70	68	70	276.0
—	Corey Conners	-3	74	66	71	67	278.0
—	K.H. Lee	-1	68	72	69	70	279.0
—	Sahith Theegala	+1	71	72	67	71	281.0
—	Scott Stallings	+3	70	74	69	73	286.0

Statlab projections

Score regressor — MAE 3.32 strokes/round (naive 4.42; lift +1.10)

Rank	Player	Pred /rd	P(top-10)	P(win)	Actual /rd	Actual pos
1	Hideki Matsuyama	67.61	6%	0%	67.25	—
2	K.H. Lee	68.44	11%	1%	69.75	—
3	Max Homa	68.49	36%	2%	66.25	—
4	Adam Scott	68.50	13%	2%	69.00	—
5	Sepp Straka	68.54	6%	0%	67.00	—
6	Rory McIlroy	68.69	46%	61%	65.75	—
7	Xander Schauffele	68.72	46%	2%	67.00	—
8	Jon Rahm	68.74	34%	8%	68.00	—
9	Sahith Theegala	68.77	18%	2%	70.25	—
10	Brian Harman	68.78	14%	1%	68.25	—
11	Tom Hoge	68.79	6%	0%	66.75	—
12	Patrick Cantlay	68.84	36%	2%	68.00	—
13	Scottie Scheffler	68.85	30%	2%	67.50	—
14	Justin Thomas	68.87	22%	1%	66.50	—
15	Matt Fitzpatrick	68.94	29%	17%	68.00	—
16	Aaron Wise	68.94	21%	1%	67.00	—
17	Billy Horschel	68.98	15%	2%	68.25	—
18	Viktor Hovland	68.99	20%	1%	67.75	—
19	J.T. Poston	69.12	13%	2%	67.25	—
20	Scott Stallings	69.12	14%	2%	71.50	—
21	Sam Burns	69.19	16%	3%	69.50	—
22	Corey Conners	69.21	18%	3%	69.50	—
23	Sungjae Im	69.22	27%	2%	66.00	—
24	Collin Morikawa	69.22	17%	2%	68.25	—
25	Tony Finau	69.22	35%	3%	67.25	—
26	Jordan Spieth	69.25	20%	2%	67.50	—
27	Cameron Smith	69.26	37%	6%	68.75	—
28	Cameron Young	69.27	20%	2%	68.25	—
29	Joaquín Niemann	70.25	20%	1%	67.25	—

Per-player gradient-boosted regressor trained on 25960 player-tournament rows from 2020-2025. Features: rolling form (last 10 starts) + course history at this tournament. Sort ascending; lower projected = better expected finish.