Wednesday, January 19, 2022

The American Express

PGA ·156 players ·Final

Pos	Player	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
—	Hudson Swafford	-23	70	65	66	64	265.0
—	Tom Hoge	-21	65	66	68	68	267.0
—	Brian Harman	-20	67	70	67	64	268.0
—	Lanto Griffin	-20	67	65	69	67	268.0
—	Lee Hodges	-20	62	72	64	70	268.0
—	Denny McCarthy	-19	67	67	68	67	269.0
—	Will Zalatoris	-19	71	61	70	67	269.0
—	Francesco Molinari	-19	67	67	67	68	269.0
—	Patrick Cantlay	-18	62	68	72	68	270.0
—	Paul Barjon	-17	66	67	65	73	271.0
—	Sungjae Im	-16	69	67	70	66	272.0
—	Si Woo Kim	-16	68	68	69	67	272.0
—	Wyndham Clark	-15	65	69	69	70	273.0
—	Russell Henley	-14	67	70	70	67	274.0
—	Andrew Putnam	-14	70	66	70	68	274.0
—	Brandt Snedeker	-14	65	69	71	69	274.0
—	Zach Johnson	-14	67	66	72	69	274.0
—	David Lipsky	-14	67	68	69	70	274.0
—	Roger Sloan	-14	66	67	71	70	274.0
—	Jon Rahm	-14	66	70	67	71	274.0
—	Séamus Power	-14	65	69	66	74	274.0
—	Luke List	-13	70	70	66	69	275.0
—	Patton Kizzire	-13	67	67	71	70	275.0
—	Harold Varner III	-13	68	66	67	74	275.0
—	J.J. Spaun	-12	75	67	67	67	276.0
—	Scottie Scheffler	-12	69	70	70	67	276.0
—	Stephen Stallings Jr.	-12	69	67	73	67	276.0
—	Adam Hadwin	-12	68	72	68	68	276.0
—	J.T. Poston	-12	69	69	69	69	276.0
—	Alex Smalley	-12	67	70	69	70	276.0
—	Charles Howell III	-12	69	68	68	71	276.0
—	Greyson Sigg	-12	65	67	73	71	276.0
—	Nick Taylor	-11	69	69	71	68	277.0
—	Justin Rose	-11	68	73	67	69	277.0
—	Camilo Villegas	-11	69	68	70	70	277.0
—	Jared Wolfe	-11	70	65	72	70	277.0
—	Lucas Glover	-11	66	69	69	73	277.0
—	Joseph Bramlett	-11	65	67	72	73	277.0
—	Sahith Theegala	-11	72	62	68	75	277.0
—	Tony Finau	-10	72	70	67	69	278.0
—	Abraham Ancer	-10	67	71	70	70	278.0
—	Jason Dufner	-10	70	67	71	70	278.0
—	Graeme McDowell	-10	66	69	73	70	278.0
—	Vince Whaley	-10	70	64	74	70	278.0
—	Patrick Rodgers	-10	70	68	69	71	278.0
—	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	-10	66	72	68	72	278.0
—	Harry Higgs	-10	66	68	67	77	278.0
—	Cameron Young	-10	64	68	69	77	278.0
—	Jason Day	-9	67	75	67	70	279.0
—	Bronson Burgoon	-9	66	70	73	70	279.0
—	Hank Lebioda	-9	68	69	71	71	279.0
—	Sepp Straka	-9	67	69	72	71	279.0
—	Sam Ryder	-9	65	68	73	73	279.0
—	Adam Svensson	-9	69	67	68	75	279.0
—	Patrick Reed	-8	71	70	68	71	280.0
—	Michael Gligic	-8	68	68	72	72	280.0
—	Kevin Chappell	-8	67	69	72	72	280.0
—	Martin Trainer	-8	66	71	68	75	280.0
—	Trey Mullinax	-7	70	68	71	72	281.0
—	Doug Ghim	-7	67	68	73	73	281.0
—	Aaron Rai	-7	67	67	72	75	281.0
—	Davis Riley	-7	66	69	68	78	281.0
—	Henrik Norlander	-6	69	67	73	73	282.0
—	Emiliano Grillo	-6	71	65	73	73	282.0
—	K.H. Lee	-6	64	71	71	76	282.0
—	Taylor Pendrith	-6	71	72	67	—	210.0
—	Scott Piercy	-6	70	71	69	—	210.0
—	Chan Kim	-6	70	71	69	—	210.0
—	Andrew Novak	-6	69	72	69	—	210.0
—	Robert Streb	-6	70	70	70	—	210.0
—	Cameron Tringale	-6	74	65	71	—	210.0
—	Pat Perez	-6	69	70	71	—	210.0
—	C.T. Pan	-6	68	71	71	—	210.0
—	Doc Redman	-6	71	67	72	—	210.0
—	Callum Tarren	-6	69	69	72	—	210.0
—	Anirban Lahiri	-5	69	67	72	75	283.0
—	Jhonattan Vegas	-5	72	72	67	—	211.0
—	Talor Gooch	-5	75	68	68	—	211.0
—	Brandon Wu	-5	70	72	69	—	211.0
—	Dylan Wu	-5	69	72	70	—	211.0
—	Brian Stuard	-5	69	72	70	—	211.0
—	Chez Reavie	-5	72	67	72	—	211.0
—	Adam Long	-5	68	71	72	—	211.0
—	Russell Knox	-5	70	68	73	—	211.0
—	Matt NeSmith	-5	69	69	73	—	211.0
—	Tyler Duncan	-5	69	69	73	—	211.0
—	Curtis Thompson	-5	69	69	73	—	211.0
—	Alex Noren	-5	70	67	74	—	211.0
—	Danny Lee	-5	65	72	74	—	211.0
—	S.Y. Noh	-4	68	71	70	75	284.0
—	Taylor Moore	-4	66	70	72	76	284.0
—	Nick Hardy	-4	68	71	68	77	284.0
—	Tyler McCumber	-4	75	72	65	—	212.0
—	Scott Stallings	-4	74	70	68	—	212.0
—	Troy Merritt	-4	73	70	69	—	212.0
—	Dylan Frittelli	-4	73	70	69	—	212.0
—	Luke Donald	-4	70	73	69	—	212.0
—	Cameron Champ	-4	73	69	70	—	212.0
—	John Huh	-4	72	70	70	—	212.0
—	Bill Haas	-4	73	68	71	—	212.0
—	Gary Woodland	-4	72	69	71	—	212.0
—	Chris Kirk	-4	71	69	72	—	212.0
—	Kevin Tway	-4	70	70	72	—	212.0
—	James Hahn	-4	70	70	72	—	212.0
—	Brett Drewitt	-4	67	73	72	—	212.0
—	Adam Schenk	-4	72	67	73	—	212.0
—	Brendon Todd	-4	71	68	73	—	212.0
—	Kramer Hickok	-4	72	66	74	—	212.0
—	Chris Stroud	-4	69	67	76	—	212.0
—	Brice Garnett	-3	68	71	69	77	285.0
—	Joshua Creel	-3	74	69	70	—	213.0
—	Ben Kohles	-3	70	72	71	—	213.0
—	Corey Conners	-3	75	66	72	—	213.0
—	Brian Gay	-3	74	67	72	—	213.0
—	Peter Uihlein	-3	71	70	72	—	213.0
—	Scott Gutschewski	-2	71	72	71	—	214.0
—	Chesson Hadley	-2	70	72	72	—	214.0
—	John Pak	-2	70	72	72	—	214.0
—	Jonathan Byrd	-2	69	73	72	—	214.0
—	Kelly Kraft	-2	71	69	74	—	214.0
—	Peter Malnati	-2	71	68	75	—	214.0
—	Hayden Buckley	-1	70	74	71	—	215.0
—	Nick Watney	-1	72	71	72	—	215.0
—	Brandon Hagy	-1	70	73	72	—	215.0
—	Carlos Ortiz	-1	74	68	73	—	215.0
—	Max McGreevy	-1	74	67	74	—	215.0
—	Austin Cook	E	78	70	68	—	216.0
—	Kevin Streelman	E	73	74	69	—	216.0
—	Ryan Moore	E	70	70	76	—	216.0
—	Matthew Wolff	+1	78	67	72	—	217.0
—	T.J. Vogel	+1	74	71	72	—	217.0
—	Richy Werenski	+1	74	69	74	—	217.0
—	David Skinns	+1	71	71	75	—	217.0
—	Brendan Steele	+1	69	73	75	—	217.0
—	Wesley Bryan	+1	68	73	76	—	217.0
—	Jim Herman	+2	74	71	73	—	218.0
—	Rory Sabbatini	+2	73	72	73	—	218.0
—	Jimmy Walker	+2	73	71	74	—	218.0
—	Mark Wilson	+2	71	70	77	—	218.0
—	Chad Ramey	+3	74	72	73	—	219.0
—	Andrew Landry	+3	73	71	75	—	219.0
—	Rickie Fowler	+3	73	71	75	—	219.0
—	Sung Kang	+3	71	72	76	—	219.0
—	Austin Smotherman	+4	76	71	73	—	220.0
—	Sebastián Muñoz	+4	75	72	73	—	220.0
—	Justin Lower	+4	74	71	75	—	220.0
—	Michael Thompson	+4	77	66	77	—	220.0
—	Nate Lashley	+6	77	73	72	—	222.0
—	Seth Reeves	+6	74	71	77	—	222.0
—	Phil Mickelson	+7	78	73	72	—	223.0
—	Dawie van der Walt	+7	75	74	74	—	223.0
—	Kurt Kitayama	+7	74	72	77	—	223.0
—	Kyle Mendoza	+7	73	73	77	—	223.0
—	James Du Preez	+8	76	74	74	—	224.0
—	Davis Love III	+8	75	71	78	—	224.0
—	Jonas Blixt	+16	74	79	79	—	232.0

Statlab projections

Score regressor — MAE 3.32 strokes/round (naive 4.42; lift +1.10)

Rank	Player	Pred /rd	P(top-10)	P(win)	Actual /rd	Actual pos
1	Kelly Kraft	63.38	2%	0%	71.33	—
2	Kurt Kitayama	67.53	3%	0%	74.33	—
3	Graeme McDowell	68.01	5%	0%	69.50	—
4	Peter Uihlein	68.09	4%	0%	71.00	—
5	Patrick Cantlay	68.10	43%	2%	67.50	—
6	Jason Day	68.20	5%	0%	69.75	—
7	David Skinns	68.25	4%	0%	72.33	—
8	Jared Wolfe	68.26	3%	0%	69.25	—
9	Jon Rahm	68.27	28%	3%	68.50	—
10	Davis Love III	68.28	2%	0%	74.67	—
11	Austin Smotherman	68.33	4%	0%	73.33	—
12	Callum Tarren	68.37	3%	0%	70.00	—
13	Brandon Wu	68.41	4%	0%	70.33	—
14	Corey Conners	68.62	15%	4%	71.00	—
15	Tony Finau	68.64	29%	4%	69.50	—
16	Ryan Moore	68.69	7%	0%	72.00	—
17	Abraham Ancer	68.75	28%	3%	69.50	—
18	David Lipsky	68.79	4%	0%	68.50	—
19	Brendon Todd	68.80	7%	1%	70.67	—
20	Justin Rose	68.80	11%	1%	69.25	—
21	Brett Drewitt	68.80	3%	0%	70.67	—
22	Francesco Molinari	68.86	4%	1%	67.25	—
23	Rickie Fowler	68.87	8%	1%	73.00	—
24	Andrew Putnam	68.88	7%	1%	68.50	—
25	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	68.88	12%	1%	69.50	—
26	Alex Noren	68.89	10%	1%	70.33	—
27	Curtis Thompson	68.89	4%	0%	70.33	—
28	Sungjae Im	68.91	25%	1%	68.00	—
29	Ben Kohles	68.92	4%	0%	71.00	—
30	Kevin Chappell	68.93	5%	0%	70.00	—

Per-player gradient-boosted regressor trained on 25960 player-tournament rows from 2020-2025. Features: rolling form (last 10 starts) + course history at this tournament. Sort ascending; lower projected = better expected finish.