Wednesday, January 5, 2022

Sentry Tournament of Champions

PGA ·38 players ·Final

Pos	Player	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
—	Cameron Smith	-34	65	64	64	65	258.0
—	Jon Rahm	-33	66	66	61	66	259.0
—	Matt Jones	-32	70	67	62	61	260.0
—	Patrick Cantlay	-26	66	67	66	67	266.0
—	Collin Morikawa	-25	68	70	67	62	267.0
—	Justin Thomas	-25	74	67	61	65	267.0
—	Daniel Berger	-25	66	66	66	69	267.0
—	Kevin Kisner	-24	69	68	66	65	268.0
—	Sungjae Im	-24	67	67	65	69	268.0
—	Cam Davis	-23	69	68	66	66	269.0
—	Marc Leishman	-23	69	67	65	68	269.0
—	Xander Schauffele	-22	69	67	68	66	270.0
—	Kevin Na	-21	67	68	68	68	271.0
—	Hideki Matsuyama	-21	69	65	68	69	271.0
—	Talor Gooch	-20	68	70	67	67	272.0
—	Séamus Power	-20	71	65	69	67	272.0
—	Max Homa	-20	72	67	65	68	272.0
—	Patrick Reed	-20	74	64	66	68	272.0
—	Tony Finau	-19	70	69	69	65	273.0
—	Sam Burns	-19	72	64	68	69	273.0
—	Jordan Spieth	-18	71	69	68	66	274.0
—	Stewart Cink	-18	69	67	67	71	274.0
—	Billy Horschel	-17	72	67	70	66	275.0
—	Si Woo Kim	-17	71	65	69	70	275.0
—	Erik van Rooyen	-16	67	70	70	69	276.0
—	Garrick Higgo	-16	68	69	69	70	276.0
—	Bryson DeChambeau	-16	69	68	67	72	276.0
—	Brooks Koepka	-15	68	68	72	69	277.0
—	Joel Dahmen	-15	68	69	69	71	277.0
—	Harris English	-14	73	70	68	67	278.0
—	Viktor Hovland	-14	69	69	73	67	278.0
—	Phil Mickelson	-14	71	69	70	68	278.0
—	K.H. Lee	-13	72	71	69	67	279.0
—	Branden Grace	-13	69	69	74	67	279.0
—	Lucas Glover	-10	74	69	70	69	282.0
—	Abraham Ancer	-10	72	69	71	70	282.0
—	Lucas Herbert	-8	69	73	68	74	284.0
—	Jason Kokrak	-7	72	70	72	71	285.0

Statlab projections

Score regressor — MAE 3.32 strokes/round (naive 4.42; lift +1.10)

Rank	Player	Pred /rd	P(top-10)	P(win)	Actual /rd	Actual pos
1	Sam Burns	67.24	34%	2%	68.25	—
2	Cam Davis	68.25	6%	0%	67.25	—
3	Phil Mickelson	68.44	6%	0%	69.50	—
4	Xander Schauffele	68.61	31%	3%	67.50	—
5	Justin Thomas	68.66	43%	4%	66.75	—
6	Harris English	68.79	14%	2%	69.50	—
7	Patrick Reed	68.92	14%	2%	68.00	—
8	Daniel Berger	68.95	26%	3%	66.75	—
9	Cameron Smith	68.98	29%	32%	64.50	—
10	Billy Horschel	69.05	12%	2%	68.75	—
11	K.H. Lee	69.05	10%	1%	69.75	—
12	Collin Morikawa	69.07	34%	2%	66.75	—
13	Marc Leishman	69.07	18%	2%	67.25	—
14	Jordan Spieth	69.14	29%	2%	68.50	—
15	Garrick Higgo	69.16	3%	0%	69.00	—
16	Erik van Rooyen	69.19	14%	1%	69.00	—
17	Abraham Ancer	69.19	26%	3%	70.50	—
18	Joel Dahmen	69.22	9%	13%	69.25	—
19	Jon Rahm	69.24	33%	2%	64.75	—
20	Sungjae Im	69.25	37%	1%	67.00	—
21	Bryson DeChambeau	69.25	11%	2%	69.00	—
22	Brooks Koepka	69.25	10%	1%	69.25	—
23	Lucas Herbert	69.26	5%	0%	71.00	—
24	Matt Jones	69.28	7%	0%	65.00	—
25	Branden Grace	69.30	7%	0%	69.75	—
26	Stewart Cink	69.32	4%	0%	68.50	—
27	Patrick Cantlay	69.33	35%	3%	66.50	—
28	Si Woo Kim	69.34	6%	0%	68.75	—
29	Talor Gooch	69.34	25%	2%	68.00	—
30	Viktor Hovland	69.43	25%	3%	69.50	—

Per-player gradient-boosted regressor trained on 25960 player-tournament rows from 2020-2025. Features: rolling form (last 10 starts) + course history at this tournament. Sort ascending; lower projected = better expected finish.