Wednesday, July 14, 2021

The Open Championship

PGA ·156 players ·Final

Pos	Player	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
—	Collin Morikawa	-15	67	64	68	66	265.0
—	Jordan Spieth	-13	65	67	69	66	267.0
—	Jon Rahm	-11	71	64	68	66	269.0
—	Louis Oosthuizen	-11	64	65	69	71	269.0
—	Dylan Frittelli	-9	66	67	70	68	271.0
—	Brooks Koepka	-8	69	66	72	65	272.0
—	Mackenzie Hughes	-8	66	69	68	69	272.0
—	Robert MacIntyre	-7	72	69	65	67	273.0
—	Dustin Johnson	-7	68	65	73	67	273.0
—	Daniel Berger	-7	70	67	68	68	273.0
—	Scottie Scheffler	-7	67	66	69	71	273.0
—	Viktor Hovland	-6	68	71	69	66	274.0
—	Emiliano Grillo	-6	70	64	72	68	274.0
—	Shane Lowry	-6	71	65	69	69	274.0
—	Tony Finau	-5	70	66	72	67	275.0
—	Paul Casey	-5	68	67	70	70	275.0
—	Marcel Siem	-5	67	67	70	71	275.0
—	Corey Conners	-5	68	68	66	73	275.0
—	Sergio García	-4	68	69	73	66	276.0
—	Brandt Snedeker	-4	68	68	72	68	276.0
—	Aaron Rai	-4	70	69	68	69	276.0
—	Brian Harman	-4	65	71	71	69	276.0
—	Kevin Streelman	-4	70	69	66	71	276.0
—	Webb Simpson	-4	66	72	67	71	276.0
—	Justin Harding	-4	67	67	70	72	276.0
—	Xander Schauffele	-3	69	71	72	65	277.0
—	Byeong Hun An	-3	67	70	73	67	277.0
—	Ian Poulter	-3	72	66	71	68	277.0
—	Matt Fitzpatrick	-3	71	69	67	70	277.0
—	Jason Kokrak	-3	70	70	66	71	277.0
—	Cameron Tringale	-3	69	66	71	71	277.0
—	Andy Sullivan	-3	67	67	71	72	277.0
—	Bryson DeChambeau	-2	71	70	72	65	278.0
—	Benjamin Hebert	-2	66	74	71	67	278.0
—	Talor Gooch	-2	69	72	67	70	278.0
—	Tommy Fleetwood	-2	67	71	70	70	278.0
—	Lanto Griffin	-2	69	70	68	71	278.0
—	Danny Willett	-2	67	69	70	72	278.0
—	Cameron Smith	-2	69	67	68	74	278.0
—	JC Ritchie	-1	71	70	72	66	279.0
—	Justin Thomas	-1	72	67	71	69	279.0
—	Max Homa	-1	70	69	71	69	279.0
—	Dean Burmester	-1	70	67	71	71	279.0
—	Daniel van Tonder	-1	68	66	74	71	279.0
—	Matt Wallace	-1	70	68	69	72	279.0
—	Will Zalatoris	-1	69	—	—	—	69.0
—	Jazz Janewattananond	E	70	69	74	67	280.0
—	Harris English	E	75	65	72	68	280.0
—	Adam Scott	E	73	66	73	68	280.0
—	Johannes Veerman	E	70	68	72	70	280.0
—	Rory McIlroy	E	70	70	69	71	280.0
—	Justin Rose	E	67	70	70	73	280.0
—	Joel Dahmen	E	69	68	69	74	280.0
—	Rickie Fowler	+1	69	72	75	65	281.0
—	Chan Kim	+1	70	69	74	68	281.0
—	Billy Horschel	+1	70	69	73	69	281.0
—	Marcus Armitage	+1	69	72	70	70	281.0
—	Jonathan Thomson	+1	71	67	73	70	281.0
—	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	+1	68	72	70	71	281.0
—	Ryosuke Kinoshita	+2	72	69	72	69	282.0
—	Joaquín Niemann	+2	69	70	73	70	282.0
—	Chez Reavie	+2	72	66	74	70	282.0
—	Bernd Wiesberger	+2	71	70	70	71	282.0
—	Abraham Ancer	+2	69	71	71	71	282.0
—	Matti Schmid	+2	74	65	71	72	282.0
—	Lee Westwood	+2	71	67	72	72	282.0
—	Antoine Rozner	+2	70	71	67	74	282.0
—	Marc Leishman	+2	75	67	—	—	142.0
—	Martin Kaymer	+2	74	68	—	—	142.0
—	Sebastián Muñoz	+2	73	69	—	—	142.0
—	Tyrrell Hatton	+2	72	70	—	—	142.0
—	Rikard Karlberg	+2	72	70	—	—	142.0
—	Ryan Palmer	+2	72	70	—	—	142.0
—	Jorge Campillo	+2	72	70	—	—	142.0
—	Keegan Bradley	+2	71	71	—	—	142.0
—	Henrik Stenson	+2	71	71	—	—	142.0
—	Kurt Kitayama	+2	71	71	—	—	142.0
—	Harold Varner III	+2	70	72	—	—	142.0
—	Russell Henley	+2	70	72	—	—	142.0
—	Jimmy Walker	+2	70	72	—	—	142.0
—	Ryutaro Nagano	+2	70	72	—	—	142.0
—	Victor Perez	+2	70	72	—	—	142.0
—	Takumi Kanaya	+2	70	72	—	—	142.0
—	Marcus Kinhult	+2	69	73	—	—	142.0
—	Guido Migliozzi	+2	69	73	—	—	142.0
—	Francesco Molinari	+2	68	74	—	—	142.0
—	Chris Kirk	+2	68	74	—	—	142.0
—	Brendan Steele	+3	73	68	74	68	283.0
—	Richard Bland	+3	70	70	73	70	283.0
—	Jack Senior	+3	67	71	72	73	283.0
—	Sam Horsfield	+3	70	70	69	74	283.0
—	Ryan Fox	+3	68	68	71	76	283.0
—	Patrick Cantlay	+3	74	69	—	—	143.0
—	Laird Shepherd	+3	74	69	—	—	143.0
—	Min Woo Lee	+3	74	69	—	—	143.0
—	Troy Merritt	+3	73	70	—	—	143.0
—	Gary Woodland	+3	73	70	—	—	143.0
—	Charley Hoffman	+3	72	71	—	—	143.0
—	Brendon Todd	+3	72	71	—	—	143.0
—	Shaun Norris	+3	72	71	—	—	143.0
—	Matt Jones	+3	72	71	—	—	143.0
—	Daniel Hillier	+3	72	71	—	—	143.0
—	Patrick Reed	+3	72	71	—	—	143.0
—	Branden Grace	+3	72	71	—	—	143.0
—	Matthias Schwab	+3	71	72	—	—	143.0
—	Rafa Cabrera Bello	+3	70	73	—	—	143.0
—	Lucas Herbert	+3	70	73	—	—	143.0
—	Erik van Rooyen	+3	69	74	—	—	143.0
—	Stewart Cink	+3	66	77	—	—	143.0
—	Padraig Harrington	+4	72	68	73	71	284.0
—	John Catlin	+4	75	69	—	—	144.0
—	Adam Hadwin	+4	75	69	—	—	144.0
—	Richard T. Lee	+4	75	69	—	—	144.0
—	Haotong Li	+4	75	69	—	—	144.0
—	Mike Lorenzo-Vera	+4	75	69	—	—	144.0
—	Jason Scrivener	+4	73	71	—	—	144.0
—	Ricardo Celia	+4	72	72	—	—	144.0
—	Ernie Els	+4	72	72	—	—	144.0
—	Gonzalo Fernandez-Castaño	+4	71	73	—	—	144.0
—	Keith Mitchell	+4	68	76	—	—	144.0
—	Kevin Kisner	+5	70	69	78	68	285.0
—	Jason Day	+5	75	70	—	—	145.0
—	Carlos Ortiz	+5	75	70	—	—	145.0
—	Lucas Glover	+5	75	70	—	—	145.0
—	Alex Noren	+5	74	71	—	—	145.0
—	Brad Kennedy	+5	71	74	—	—	145.0
—	Richard Mansell	+6	72	69	76	69	286.0
—	Yuxin Lin	+6	69	72	74	71	286.0
—	Cole Hammer	+6	75	71	—	—	146.0
—	Matt Kuchar	+6	74	72	—	—	146.0
—	Rikuya Hoshino	+6	74	72	—	—	146.0
—	Joe Long	+6	73	73	—	—	146.0
—	Thomas Detry	+6	72	74	—	—	146.0
—	Darren Clarke	+6	71	75	—	—	146.0
—	Joost Luiten	+7	76	71	—	—	147.0
—	Sam Bairstow	+7	75	72	—	—	147.0
—	Romain Langasque	+7	74	73	—	—	147.0
—	Christoffer Bring	+7	72	75	—	—	147.0
—	C.T. Pan	+7	71	76	—	—	147.0
—	Jaco Ahlers	+7	68	79	—	—	147.0
—	Poom Saksansin	+8	73	68	76	71	288.0
—	Sam Burns	+8	71	69	76	72	288.0
—	Nicholas Poppleton	+8	75	73	—	—	148.0
—	Garrick Higgo	+8	73	75	—	—	148.0
—	Paul Waring	+8	72	76	—	—	148.0
—	Ben Hutchinson	+9	77	72	—	—	149.0
—	Aaron Pike	+9	74	75	—	—	149.0
—	Abel Gallegos	+9	73	76	—	—	149.0
—	Marcel Schneider	+9	73	76	—	—	149.0
—	Adam Long	+9	72	77	—	—	149.0
—	Connor Worsdall	+10	77	73	—	—	150.0
—	Sam Forgan	+10	73	77	—	—	150.0
—	Phil Mickelson	+12	80	72	—	—	152.0
—	Daniel Croft	+14	76	78	—	—	154.0
—	Yuki Inamori	+16	75	81	—	—	156.0
—	Deyen Lawson	+17	80	77	—	—	157.0

Statlab projections

Score regressor — MAE 3.32 strokes/round (naive 4.42; lift +1.10)

Rank	Player	Pred /rd	P(top-10)	P(win)	Actual /rd	Actual pos
1	Padraig Harrington	65.43	5%	0%	71.00	—
2	Phil Mickelson	66.60	8%	1%	76.00	—
3	Takumi Kanaya	66.79	3%	0%	71.00	—
4	Lanto Griffin	66.86	7%	1%	69.50	—
5	Patrick Reed	66.94	22%	1%	71.50	—
6	Adam Hadwin	66.98	4%	0%	72.00	—
7	Byeong Hun An	67.02	4%	0%	69.25	—
8	Brendon Todd	67.16	7%	1%	71.50	—
9	Gary Woodland	67.20	8%	1%	71.50	—
10	Brandt Snedeker	67.21	11%	1%	69.00	—
11	Rickie Fowler	67.23	6%	0%	70.25	—
12	Mackenzie Hughes	67.24	6%	0%	68.00	—
13	Ryan Palmer	67.27	8%	0%	71.00	—
14	Kevin Streelman	67.31	10%	1%	69.00	—
15	Rafa Cabrera Bello	67.37	5%	0%	71.50	—
16	Keith Mitchell	67.38	6%	0%	72.00	—
17	Talor Gooch	67.38	12%	1%	69.50	—
18	Jason Day	67.42	12%	2%	72.50	—
19	Scottie Scheffler	67.45	12%	1%	68.25	—
20	Cameron Tringale	67.55	12%	1%	69.25	—
21	C.T. Pan	67.62	8%	0%	73.50	—
22	Jimmy Walker	67.67	8%	0%	71.00	—
23	Justin Thomas	67.76	12%	1%	69.75	—
24	Tony Finau	67.77	7%	0%	68.75	—
25	Cameron Smith	67.83	13%	1%	69.50	—
26	Thomas Detry	67.84	9%	0%	73.00	—
27	Joel Dahmen	67.85	8%	0%	70.00	—
28	Adam Long	67.85	5%	0%	74.50	—
29	Emiliano Grillo	67.88	12%	1%	68.50	—
30	Dylan Frittelli	67.88	3%	0%	67.75	—

Per-player gradient-boosted regressor trained on 25960 player-tournament rows from 2020-2025. Features: rolling form (last 10 starts) + course history at this tournament. Sort ascending; lower projected = better expected finish.