Wednesday, August 18, 2021

THE NORTHERN TRUST

PGA ·123 players ·Final

Pos	Player	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
—	Tony Finau	-20	67	64	68	65	268.0
—	Cameron Smith	-20	69	68	60	67	264.0
—	Jon Rahm	-18	63	67	67	69	266.0
—	Alex Noren	-15	69	64	70	66	269.0
—	Tom Hoge	-15	69	64	67	69	269.0
—	Justin Thomas	-15	63	69	67	70	269.0
—	Erik van Rooyen	-14	69	67	62	72	270.0
—	Kevin Na	-13	67	66	70	68	271.0
—	Keith Mitchell	-13	68	64	70	69	271.0
—	Corey Conners	-13	70	69	62	70	271.0
—	Patrick Cantlay	-12	68	67	69	68	272.0
—	Keegan Bradley	-12	69	67	67	69	272.0
—	Hudson Swafford	-12	71	65	66	70	272.0
—	Harold Varner III	-12	66	67	68	71	272.0
—	Shane Lowry	-12	71	67	62	72	272.0
—	Harry Higgs	-11	69	70	66	68	273.0
—	Robert Streb	-11	67	68	69	69	273.0
—	Pat Perez	-11	71	66	66	70	273.0
—	Sungjae Im	-11	71	65	67	70	273.0
—	Xander Schauffele	-11	70	62	70	71	273.0
—	Stewart Cink	-10	71	68	66	69	274.0
—	Sebastián Muñoz	-10	68	69	68	69	274.0
—	Aaron Wise	-10	69	67	68	70	274.0
—	Charley Hoffman	-10	73	65	65	71	274.0
—	Sam Burns	-10	71	67	64	72	274.0
—	Cameron Tringale	-10	67	68	67	72	274.0
—	Maverick McNealy	-9	69	70	69	67	275.0
—	Cameron Champ	-9	68	70	67	70	275.0
—	Mackenzie Hughes	-9	67	69	69	70	275.0
—	Lee Westwood	-9	70	65	68	72	275.0
—	Ian Poulter	-8	72	66	71	67	276.0
—	Chez Reavie	-8	71	66	71	68	276.0
—	Bryson DeChambeau	-8	71	65	72	68	276.0
—	Billy Horschel	-8	71	70	66	69	276.0
—	Cam Davis	-8	69	70	68	69	276.0
—	Séamus Power	-8	70	67	70	69	276.0
—	Harris English	-8	69	68	70	69	276.0
—	Talor Gooch	-8	73	67	66	70	276.0
—	Adam Schenk	-8	73	64	69	70	276.0
—	Joel Dahmen	-8	70	68	67	71	276.0
—	Doug Ghim	-8	71	70	63	72	276.0
—	Brooks Koepka	-8	70	64	68	74	276.0
—	Rory McIlroy	-7	71	70	66	70	277.0
—	Scottie Scheffler	-7	70	68	69	70	277.0
—	Hideki Matsuyama	-7	69	68	70	70	277.0
—	Viktor Hovland	-7	68	67	65	77	277.0
—	Max Homa	-6	74	66	70	68	278.0
—	Webb Simpson	-6	72	66	72	68	278.0
—	Peter Malnati	-6	70	69	70	69	278.0
—	Brandt Snedeker	-6	72	68	68	70	278.0
—	Marc Leishman	-6	69	70	69	70	278.0
—	K.H. Lee	-6	71	68	69	70	278.0
—	Carlos Ortiz	-6	69	70	68	71	278.0
—	Joaquín Niemann	-6	71	70	65	72	278.0
—	Zach Johnson	-6	70	66	70	72	278.0
—	Dylan Frittelli	-5	70	71	71	67	279.0
—	Russell Henley	-5	69	71	71	68	279.0
—	Andrew Putnam	-5	69	70	72	68	279.0
—	Anirban Lahiri	-5	69	69	71	70	279.0
—	Daniel Berger	-5	71	70	67	71	279.0
—	Chris Kirk	-5	72	68	68	71	279.0
—	Kramer Hickok	-5	72	68	68	71	279.0
—	Patton Kizzire	-5	70	67	69	73	279.0
—	Scott Piercy	-4	71	70	73	66	280.0
—	Kevin Streelman	-4	69	70	71	70	280.0
—	Lanto Griffin	-4	69	68	73	70	280.0
—	Abraham Ancer	-4	72	69	67	72	280.0
—	Paul Casey	-4	70	71	66	73	280.0
—	Garrick Higgo	-4	69	68	70	73	280.0
—	Luke List	-1	71	70	70	72	283.0
—	Denny McCarthy	E	73	68	72	71	284.0
—	James Hahn	E	71	70	71	72	284.0
—	Kyle Stanley	E	75	67	—	—	142.0
—	Martin Laird	E	73	69	—	—	142.0
—	Ryan Palmer	E	73	69	—	—	142.0
—	Sam Ryder	E	72	70	—	—	142.0
—	Si Woo Kim	E	72	70	—	—	142.0
—	Tyler McCumber	E	72	70	—	—	142.0
—	Jhonattan Vegas	E	70	72	—	—	142.0
—	Emiliano Grillo	E	70	72	—	—	142.0
—	Jason Kokrak	E	70	72	—	—	142.0
—	Dustin Johnson	E	70	72	—	—	142.0
—	Russell Knox	E	70	72	—	—	142.0
—	Adam Scott	E	67	75	—	—	142.0
—	Jordan Spieth	+1	72	62	72	79	285.0
—	Sergio García	+1	75	68	—	—	143.0
—	Chesson Hadley	+1	75	68	—	—	143.0
—	Lucas Glover	+1	74	69	—	—	143.0
—	Matt Fitzpatrick	+1	73	70	—	—	143.0
—	Sepp Straka	+1	73	70	—	—	143.0
—	Charl Schwartzel	+1	72	71	—	—	143.0
—	Adam Long	+1	72	71	—	—	143.0
—	Brice Garnett	+1	72	71	—	—	143.0
—	Bubba Watson	+1	71	72	—	—	143.0
—	Gary Woodland	+2	71	70	68	77	286.0
—	Collin Morikawa	+2	74	70	—	—	144.0
—	Matt NeSmith	+2	74	70	—	—	144.0
—	Tyrrell Hatton	+2	72	72	—	—	144.0
—	Branden Grace	+2	71	73	—	—	144.0
—	Brian Harman	+3	72	66	76	73	287.0
—	Brendan Steele	+3	78	67	—	—	145.0
—	Hank Lebioda	+3	76	69	—	—	145.0
—	Adam Hadwin	+3	75	70	—	—	145.0
—	C.T. Pan	+3	74	71	—	—	145.0
—	Scott Stallings	+3	74	71	—	—	145.0
—	Brian Stuard	+3	73	72	—	—	145.0
—	Doc Redman	+3	73	72	—	—	145.0
—	Phil Mickelson	+3	73	72	—	—	145.0
—	Troy Merritt	+3	72	73	—	—	145.0
—	Brian Gay	+3	72	73	—	—	145.0
—	Henrik Norlander	+3	70	75	—	—	145.0
—	Jason Day	+4	73	73	—	—	146.0
—	Brandon Hagy	+5	78	69	—	—	147.0
—	Richy Werenski	+5	76	71	—	—	147.0
—	Wyndham Clark	+6	78	70	—	—	148.0
—	Brendon Todd	+6	73	75	—	—	148.0
—	Matt Jones	+7	79	70	—	—	149.0
—	Matt Kuchar	+7	75	74	—	—	149.0
—	Matthew Wolff	+8	76	74	—	—	150.0
—	Kevin Kisner	+8	76	74	—	—	150.0
—	Matt Wallace	+8	79	—	—	—	79.0
—	Roger Sloan	+9	79	72	—	—	151.0
—	J.T. Poston	+11	76	77	—	—	153.0

Statlab projections

Score regressor — MAE 3.32 strokes/round (naive 4.42; lift +1.10)

Rank	Player	Pred /rd	P(top-10)	P(win)	Actual /rd	Actual pos
1	Peter Malnati	67.23	3%	0%	69.50	—
2	Robert Streb	67.34	6%	0%	68.25	—
3	Sergio García	67.44	11%	1%	71.50	—
4	Martin Laird	67.60	6%	0%	71.00	—
5	Hudson Swafford	67.94	6%	0%	68.00	—
6	Lee Westwood	67.96	9%	2%	68.75	—
7	Scottie Scheffler	67.97	26%	3%	69.25	—
8	C.T. Pan	68.08	7%	0%	72.50	—
9	Daniel Berger	68.14	27%	3%	69.75	—
10	Kramer Hickok	68.15	6%	0%	69.75	—
11	Harris English	68.16	25%	2%	69.00	—
12	Doug Ghim	68.16	7%	0%	69.00	—
13	Stewart Cink	68.17	13%	1%	68.50	—
14	James Hahn	68.18	5%	0%	71.00	—
15	Jordan Spieth	68.27	29%	2%	71.25	—
16	Dustin Johnson	68.30	15%	2%	71.00	—
17	Ryan Palmer	68.31	10%	0%	71.00	—
18	Chris Kirk	68.37	7%	0%	69.75	—
19	Xander Schauffele	68.38	16%	2%	68.25	—
20	Pat Perez	68.40	9%	1%	68.25	—
21	Cam Davis	68.46	14%	1%	69.00	—
22	Viktor Hovland	68.47	14%	2%	69.25	—
23	Matthew Wolff	68.49	8%	0%	75.00	—
24	Corey Conners	68.51	24%	1%	67.75	—
25	Cameron Smith	68.53	20%	2%	52.80	—
26	Justin Thomas	68.55	25%	2%	67.25	—
27	Alex Noren	68.58	18%	1%	67.25	—
28	Cameron Champ	68.59	6%	0%	68.75	—
29	Brooks Koepka	68.60	18%	2%	69.00	—
30	Matt Wallace	68.63	11%	1%	39.50	—

Per-player gradient-boosted regressor trained on 25960 player-tournament rows from 2020-2025. Features: rolling form (last 10 starts) + course history at this tournament. Sort ascending; lower projected = better expected finish.