Wednesday, September 1, 2021

TOUR Championship

PGA ·30 players ·Final

Pos	Player	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
—	Patrick Cantlay	-21	67	66	67	69	269.0
—	Jon Rahm	-20	65	65	68	68	266.0
—	Kevin Na	-16	66	67	66	67	266.0
—	Justin Thomas	-15	67	67	65	70	269.0
—	Xander Schauffele	-14	68	69	67	64	268.0
—	Viktor Hovland	-14	66	68	70	65	269.0
—	Bryson DeChambeau	-13	69	67	72	66	274.0
—	Dustin Johnson	-11	68	69	68	67	272.0
—	Abraham Ancer	-10	69	70	65	70	274.0
—	Billy Horschel	-10	65	68	67	70	270.0
—	Daniel Berger	-8	72	69	67	64	272.0
—	Jason Kokrak	-8	67	68	72	67	274.0
—	Tony Finau	-8	72	67	73	68	280.0
—	Rory McIlroy	-7	68	66	74	67	275.0
—	Sergio García	-7	68	70	66	69	273.0
—	Cameron Smith	-7	68	68	73	69	278.0
—	Louis Oosthuizen	-7	68	67	71	70	276.0
—	Sam Burns	-6	71	70	69	68	278.0
—	Harris English	-6	66	69	75	68	278.0
—	Sungjae Im	-4	71	70	70	68	279.0
—	Jordan Spieth	-4	69	67	70	74	280.0
—	Erik van Rooyen	-3	69	73	68	67	277.0
—	Corey Conners	-3	67	72	70	69	278.0
—	Scottie Scheffler	-3	67	72	68	71	278.0
—	Patrick Reed	-2	72	69	66	71	278.0
—	Brooks Koepka	-1	67	71	49	—	187.0
—	Hideki Matsuyama	E	77	65	69	70	281.0
—	Stewart Cink	E	72	68	71	70	281.0
—	Collin Morikawa	E	70	73	68	72	283.0
—	Joaquín Niemann	+4	72	71	70	72	285.0

Statlab projections

Score regressor — MAE 3.32 strokes/round (naive 4.42; lift +1.10)

Rank	Player	Pred /rd	P(top-10)	P(win)	Actual /rd	Actual pos
1	Stewart Cink	67.48	9%	1%	70.25	—
2	Corey Conners	68.11	17%	1%	69.50	—
3	Scottie Scheffler	68.64	23%	2%	69.50	—
4	Xander Schauffele	68.64	27%	1%	67.00	—
5	Brooks Koepka	68.71	12%	1%	46.75	—
6	Justin Thomas	68.72	25%	2%	67.25	—
7	Dustin Johnson	68.75	19%	2%	68.00	—
8	Jon Rahm	68.76	32%	2%	66.50	—
9	Jordan Spieth	68.83	26%	2%	70.00	—
10	Louis Oosthuizen	68.83	17%	1%	69.00	—
11	Collin Morikawa	68.88	23%	3%	70.75	—
12	Harris English	68.88	25%	3%	69.50	—
13	Jason Kokrak	68.90	11%	2%	68.50	—
14	Patrick Reed	68.91	18%	1%	69.50	—
15	Patrick Cantlay	68.93	29%	4%	67.25	—
16	Viktor Hovland	68.98	18%	2%	67.25	—
17	Daniel Berger	68.99	24%	6%	68.00	—
18	Sergio García	68.99	11%	1%	68.25	—
19	Cameron Smith	69.00	18%	2%	69.50	—
20	Abraham Ancer	69.00	28%	2%	68.50	—
21	Erik van Rooyen	69.03	11%	0%	69.25	—
22	Rory McIlroy	69.03	14%	2%	68.75	—
23	Sam Burns	69.10	11%	1%	69.50	—
24	Sungjae Im	69.12	14%	2%	69.75	—
25	Tony Finau	69.12	13%	3%	70.00	—
26	Hideki Matsuyama	69.22	18%	5%	70.25	—
27	Bryson DeChambeau	69.29	27%	2%	68.50	—
28	Kevin Na	69.35	15%	2%	66.50	—
29	Billy Horschel	70.12	13%	0%	67.50	—
30	Joaquín Niemann	70.18	15%	2%	71.25	—

Per-player gradient-boosted regressor trained on 25960 player-tournament rows from 2020-2025. Features: rolling form (last 10 starts) + course history at this tournament. Sort ascending; lower projected = better expected finish.