Wednesday, April 7, 2021

2021 Masters Tournament

PGA ·88 players ·Final

Pos	Player	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
—	Hideki Matsuyama	-10	69	71	65	73	278.0
—	Will Zalatoris	-9	70	68	71	70	279.0
—	Jordan Spieth	-7	71	68	72	70	281.0
—	Xander Schauffele	-7	72	69	68	72	281.0
—	Jon Rahm	-6	72	72	72	66	282.0
—	Marc Leishman	-6	72	67	70	73	282.0
—	Justin Rose	-5	65	72	72	74	283.0
—	Patrick Reed	-4	70	75	70	69	284.0
—	Corey Conners	-4	73	69	68	74	284.0
—	Cameron Smith	-3	74	68	73	70	285.0
—	Tony Finau	-3	74	66	73	72	285.0
—	Webb Simpson	-2	70	76	70	70	286.0
—	Kevin Na	-2	75	70	70	71	286.0
—	Stewart Cink	-2	74	69	72	71	286.0
—	Robert MacIntyre	-2	74	70	70	72	286.0
—	Si Woo Kim	-2	71	69	74	72	286.0
—	Brian Harman	-2	69	69	74	74	286.0
—	Tyrrell Hatton	-1	71	74	74	68	287.0
—	Collin Morikawa	-1	73	69	75	70	287.0
—	Scottie Scheffler	-1	73	72	71	71	287.0
—	Harris English	E	74	71	73	70	288.0
—	Phil Mickelson	E	75	72	69	72	288.0
—	Shane Lowry	E	71	73	72	72	288.0
—	Viktor Hovland	E	73	70	72	73	288.0
—	Justin Thomas	E	73	67	75	73	288.0
—	Paul Casey	+1	73	74	73	69	289.0
—	Ian Poulter	+1	74	73	72	70	289.0
—	Abraham Ancer	+1	75	69	75	70	289.0
—	Louis Oosthuizen	+1	76	70	72	71	289.0
—	Charl Schwartzel	+1	74	71	72	72	289.0
—	Bubba Watson	+1	74	70	73	72	289.0
—	Matt Jones	+1	74	69	74	72	289.0
—	Cameron Champ	+1	72	68	77	72	289.0
—	Michael Thompson	+2	72	72	75	71	290.0
—	Matt Wallace	+2	74	72	71	73	290.0
—	Matt Fitzpatrick	+2	74	70	73	73	290.0
—	Ryan Palmer	+2	74	68	73	75	290.0
—	Martin Laird	+3	74	71	72	74	291.0
—	Henrik Stenson	+3	73	71	71	76	291.0
—	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	+4	70	76	74	72	292.0
—	Gary Woodland	+4	73	72	75	72	292.0
—	Sebastián Muñoz	+4	74	73	71	74	292.0
—	Joaquín Niemann	+4	75	71	70	76	292.0
—	Mackenzie Hughes	+4	72	72	72	76	292.0
—	Bernd Wiesberger	+4	74	66	74	78	292.0
—	Matt Kuchar	+4	78	70	—	—	148.0
—	Sergio García	+4	76	72	—	—	148.0
—	Jimmy Walker	+4	75	73	—	—	148.0
—	Daniel Berger	+4	75	73	—	—	148.0
—	Max Homa	+4	74	74	—	—	148.0
—	Brendon Todd	+5	73	71	76	73	293.0
—	Bryson DeChambeau	+5	76	67	75	75	293.0
—	Tommy Fleetwood	+5	74	70	73	76	293.0
—	Mike Weir	+5	78	71	—	—	149.0
—	Lee Westwood	+5	78	71	—	—	149.0
—	Lanto Griffin	+5	76	73	—	—	149.0
—	Danny Willett	+5	76	73	—	—	149.0
—	Brooks Koepka	+5	74	75	—	—	149.0
—	Dustin Johnson	+5	74	75	—	—	149.0
—	Kevin Kisner	+5	72	77	—	—	149.0
—	C.T. Pan	+6	79	71	—	—	150.0
—	Dylan Frittelli	+6	76	74	—	—	150.0
—	Rory McIlroy	+6	76	74	—	—	150.0
—	Robert Streb	+6	75	75	—	—	150.0
—	Jason Kokrak	+7	71	76	71	77	295.0
—	Victor Perez	+7	78	73	—	—	151.0
—	Zach Johnson	+7	77	74	—	—	151.0
—	Bernhard Langer	+7	74	77	—	—	151.0
—	José María Olazábal	+8	75	71	75	75	296.0
—	Billy Horschel	+8	76	71	73	76	296.0
—	Patrick Cantlay	+8	79	73	—	—	152.0
—	Brian Gay	+8	78	74	—	—	152.0
—	Charles Osborne	+8	76	76	—	—	152.0
—	Francesco Molinari	+9	74	73	69	81	297.0
—	Carlos Ortiz	+9	82	71	—	—	153.0
—	Jason Day	+9	77	76	—	—	153.0
—	Ian Woosnam	+9	76	77	—	—	153.0
—	Jim Herman	+10	76	70	76	76	298.0
—	Joe Long	+10	82	72	—	—	154.0
—	Adam Scott	+11	74	73	79	73	299.0
—	Matthew Wolff	+11	76	79	—	—	155.0
—	Sandy Lyle	+12	81	75	—	—	156.0
—	Hudson Swafford	+12	73	83	—	—	156.0
—	Fred Couples	+13	79	78	—	—	157.0
—	Sungjae Im	+13	77	80	—	—	157.0
—	Vijay Singh	+15	79	80	—	—	159.0
—	Tyler Strafaci	+17	80	81	—	—	161.0
—	Larry Mize	+19	84	79	—	—	163.0

Statlab projections

Score regressor — MAE 3.32 strokes/round (naive 4.42; lift +1.10)

Rank	Player	Pred /rd	P(top-10)	P(win)	Actual /rd	Actual pos
1	Sebastián Muñoz	67.50	7%	0%	73.00	—
2	Charl Schwartzel	67.72	6%	0%	72.25	—
3	Martin Laird	67.78	6%	0%	72.75	—
4	Victor Perez	67.78	5%	0%	75.50	—
5	Brian Gay	67.78	4%	0%	76.00	—
6	Ian Poulter	67.95	9%	1%	72.25	—
7	Danny Willett	67.98	5%	0%	74.50	—
8	Jimmy Walker	68.06	3%	0%	74.00	—
9	Matt Wallace	68.17	9%	1%	72.50	—
10	Sungjae Im	68.21	20%	2%	78.50	—
11	C.T. Pan	68.25	7%	0%	75.00	—
12	Vijay Singh	68.27	2%	0%	79.50	—
13	Si Woo Kim	68.28	11%	1%	71.50	—
14	Matt Fitzpatrick	68.38	19%	1%	72.50	—
15	Paul Casey	68.38	27%	1%	72.25	—
16	Tommy Fleetwood	68.50	9%	1%	73.25	—
17	Robert MacIntyre	68.55	5%	0%	71.50	—
18	Jim Herman	68.57	4%	0%	74.50	—
19	Stewart Cink	68.70	8%	0%	71.50	—
20	Hideki Matsuyama	68.71	12%	2%	69.50	—
21	Lanto Griffin	68.71	17%	3%	74.50	—
22	Bryson DeChambeau	68.73	22%	1%	73.25	—
23	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	68.75	10%	1%	73.00	—
24	Justin Rose	68.76	10%	1%	70.75	—
25	Zach Johnson	68.77	12%	1%	75.50	—
26	Dylan Frittelli	68.77	8%	0%	75.00	—
27	Matt Kuchar	68.79	7%	1%	74.00	—
28	Adam Scott	68.81	20%	1%	74.75	—
29	Patrick Reed	68.84	31%	1%	71.00	—
30	Corey Conners	68.86	26%	1%	71.00	—

Per-player gradient-boosted regressor trained on 25960 player-tournament rows from 2020-2025. Features: rolling form (last 10 starts) + course history at this tournament. Sort ascending; lower projected = better expected finish.