Wednesday, January 6, 2021

Sentry Tournament of Champions

PGA ·42 players ·Final

Pos	Player	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
—	Harris English	-26	65	67	66	69	271.0
—	Joaquín Niemann	-25	69	67	67	64	267.0
—	Justin Thomas	-24	65	69	68	66	268.0
—	Ryan Palmer	-23	67	67	64	71	269.0
—	Xander Schauffele	-21	69	66	70	66	271.0
—	Sungjae Im	-21	67	68	67	69	271.0
—	Bryson DeChambeau	-20	69	67	70	66	272.0
—	Jon Rahm	-20	70	66	69	67	272.0
—	Collin Morikawa	-20	69	65	65	73	272.0
—	Daniel Berger	-19	69	65	67	72	273.0
—	Sergio García	-18	67	71	67	69	274.0
—	Dustin Johnson	-18	71	65	69	69	274.0
—	Lanto Griffin	-17	71	68	69	67	275.0
—	Scottie Scheffler	-17	70	66	70	69	275.0
—	Brendon Todd	-17	68	67	70	70	275.0
—	Patrick Cantlay	-17	68	68	67	72	275.0
—	Abraham Ancer	-16	70	71	69	66	276.0
—	Sebastián Muñoz	-16	75	66	67	68	276.0
—	Martin Laird	-16	69	69	68	70	276.0
—	Webb Simpson	-16	70	67	69	70	276.0
—	Michael Thompson	-15	73	68	67	69	277.0
—	Adam Scott	-15	68	71	68	70	277.0
—	Patrick Reed	-15	67	68	72	70	277.0
—	Kevin Kisner	-14	70	71	69	68	278.0
—	Marc Leishman	-14	69	69	71	69	278.0
—	Richy Werenski	-14	69	69	70	70	278.0
—	Cameron Smith	-14	70	70	66	72	278.0
—	Billy Horschel	-14	71	66	66	75	278.0
—	Brian Gay	-13	70	67	71	71	279.0
—	Nick Taylor	-13	67	71	69	72	279.0
—	Tony Finau	-11	74	68	68	71	281.0
—	Cameron Champ	-11	71	68	70	72	281.0
—	Stewart Cink	-11	71	69	67	74	281.0
—	Viktor Hovland	-11	69	68	68	76	281.0
—	Hudson Swafford	-9	73	70	72	68	283.0
—	Jason Kokrak	-9	71	66	70	76	283.0
—	Carlos Ortiz	-7	69	67	75	74	285.0
—	Andrew Landry	-5	70	71	76	70	287.0
—	Robert Streb	-5	67	72	72	76	287.0
—	Kevin Na	-5	71	68	69	79	287.0
—	Hideki Matsuyama	-4	73	75	72	68	288.0
—	Mackenzie Hughes	-4	73	71	72	72	288.0

Statlab projections

Score regressor — MAE 3.32 strokes/round (naive 4.42; lift +1.10)

Rank	Player	Pred /rd	P(top-10)	P(win)	Actual /rd	Actual pos
1	Xander Schauffele	66.88	63%	4%	67.75	—
2	Justin Thomas	67.23	61%	4%	67.00	—
3	Nick Taylor	67.45	5%	0%	69.75	—
4	Harris English	67.76	58%	50%	54.20	—
5	Marc Leishman	67.98	5%	0%	69.50	—
6	Brian Gay	68.78	5%	0%	69.75	—
7	Hudson Swafford	68.92	6%	0%	70.75	—
8	Mackenzie Hughes	69.07	11%	1%	72.00	—
9	Patrick Reed	69.17	28%	4%	69.25	—
10	Abraham Ancer	69.22	16%	2%	69.00	—
11	Cameron Smith	69.26	21%	1%	69.50	—
12	Tony Finau	69.27	26%	2%	70.25	—
13	Richy Werenski	69.34	10%	1%	69.50	—
14	Billy Horschel	69.44	12%	2%	69.50	—
15	Scottie Scheffler	69.46	21%	1%	68.75	—
16	Hideki Matsuyama	69.46	19%	1%	72.00	—
17	Andrew Landry	69.49	9%	0%	71.75	—
18	Webb Simpson	69.53	27%	3%	69.00	—
19	Stewart Cink	69.57	6%	0%	70.25	—
20	Viktor Hovland	69.61	34%	2%	70.25	—
21	Adam Scott	69.62	18%	1%	69.25	—
22	Carlos Ortiz	69.63	11%	2%	71.25	—
23	Jason Kokrak	69.63	25%	2%	70.75	—
24	Michael Thompson	69.63	7%	0%	69.25	—
25	Daniel Berger	69.68	32%	5%	68.25	—
26	Bryson DeChambeau	69.70	29%	2%	68.00	—
27	Sungjae Im	69.75	14%	2%	67.75	—
28	Joaquín Niemann	69.78	13%	1%	53.40	—
29	Jon Rahm	69.85	57%	1%	68.00	—
30	Martin Laird	69.87	5%	0%	69.00	—

Per-player gradient-boosted regressor trained on 25960 player-tournament rows from 2020-2025. Features: rolling form (last 10 starts) + course history at this tournament. Sort ascending; lower projected = better expected finish.