Thursday, September 3, 2020

Tour Championship

PGA ·30 players ·Final

Pos	Player	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
—	Dustin Johnson	-21	67	70	64	68	269.0
—	Justin Thomas	-18	66	71	66	66	269.0
—	Xander Schauffele	-18	67	65	67	66	265.0
—	Jon Rahm	-17	65	74	66	66	271.0
—	Scottie Scheffler	-14	71	66	66	65	268.0
—	Collin Morikawa	-13	71	65	67	69	272.0
—	Tyrrell Hatton	-12	67	66	71	66	270.0
—	Patrick Reed	-11	71	66	70	65	272.0
—	Sebastián Muñoz	-11	71	65	70	66	272.0
—	Rory McIlroy	-11	64	71	70	67	272.0
—	Sungjae Im	-10	68	64	72	70	274.0
—	Harris English	-9	70	69	69	67	275.0
—	Webb Simpson	-9	70	71	68	68	277.0
—	Mackenzie Hughes	-8	70	69	66	67	272.0
—	Hideki Matsuyama	-7	70	70	67	70	277.0
—	Daniel Berger	-7	69	71	64	73	277.0
—	Tony Finau	-6	68	71	66	71	276.0
—	Abraham Ancer	-5	64	71	69	72	276.0
—	Lanto Griffin	-5	67	69	69	72	277.0
—	Viktor Hovland	-4	69	69	68	70	276.0
—	Brendon Todd	-4	67	68	70	74	279.0
—	Bryson DeChambeau	-3	72	69	69	71	281.0
—	Kevin Kisner	-1	72	68	69	71	280.0
—	Ryan Palmer	E	72	72	70	67	281.0
—	Cameron Champ	E	68	71	70	71	280.0
—	Cameron Smith	E	68	68	73	71	280.0
—	Joaquín Niemann	+1	72	72	67	72	283.0
—	Kevin Na	+1	69	70	71	72	282.0
—	Marc Leishman	+2	66	75	73	69	283.0
—	Billy Horschel	+4	70	73	71	70	284.0

Statlab projections

Score regressor — MAE 3.32 strokes/round (naive 4.42; lift +1.10)

Rank	Player	Pred /rd	P(top-10)	P(win)	Actual /rd	Actual pos
1	Sebastián Muñoz	68.06	6%	0%	68.00	—
2	Sungjae Im	68.55	6%	0%	68.50	—
3	Lanto Griffin	68.58	8%	1%	69.25	—
4	Patrick Reed	68.92	13%	1%	68.00	—
5	Brendon Todd	69.03	10%	1%	69.75	—
6	Cameron Smith	69.21	7%	0%	70.00	—
7	Kevin Kisner	69.27	12%	2%	70.00	—
8	Joaquín Niemann	69.27	11%	1%	70.75	—
9	Billy Horschel	69.33	14%	2%	71.00	—
10	Collin Morikawa	69.36	17%	5%	68.00	—
11	Cameron Champ	69.54	7%	1%	70.00	—
12	Dustin Johnson	69.59	21%	3%	67.25	—
13	Hideki Matsuyama	69.64	12%	1%	69.25	—
14	Marc Leishman	69.64	5%	0%	70.75	—
15	Xander Schauffele	69.69	16%	1%	66.25	—
16	Tony Finau	69.69	17%	2%	69.00	—
17	Scottie Scheffler	69.71	12%	2%	67.00	—
18	Kevin Na	69.71	10%	2%	70.50	—
19	Viktor Hovland	69.79	20%	3%	69.00	—
20	Ryan Palmer	69.83	12%	1%	70.25	—
21	Mackenzie Hughes	69.90	19%	2%	68.00	—
22	Daniel Berger	69.96	30%	2%	69.25	—
23	Rory McIlroy	69.99	19%	2%	68.00	—
24	Justin Thomas	70.15	39%	6%	67.25	—
25	Jon Rahm	70.15	40%	6%	67.75	—
26	Harris English	70.20	21%	2%	68.75	—
27	Bryson DeChambeau	70.20	28%	5%	70.25	—
28	Abraham Ancer	70.20	17%	2%	69.00	—
29	Webb Simpson	70.44	25%	4%	69.25	—
30	Tyrrell Hatton	70.52	34%	2%	67.50	—

Per-player gradient-boosted regressor trained on 25960 player-tournament rows from 2020-2025. Features: rolling form (last 10 starts) + course history at this tournament. Sort ascending; lower projected = better expected finish.