NHL games

VGK @ CAR

NHL Lenovo Center ·Raleigh
Puck drop

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Based on last 10 (CAR) / 10 (VGK) games this season
VGK away
home CAR
24% 76%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 4-4
VGK
Away
Metric
CAR
Home
53-51
Record
69-32
51%
Win %
68%
3.3
GF/G
3.6
3.0
GA/G
2.8
LLLWL
L5
WWWLW

Box score

Statlab projections

Lineup from last game () · per-position MultiOutput regressor
# Player Pos Team G A SOG Hit DK
1 M Marner forw VGK vs CAR 0.29 0.67 2.2 1.3 9.2
2 S Theodore defe VGK vs CAR 0.17 0.41 1.8 8.7
3 S Jarvis forw CAR vs VGK 0.31 0.39 2.4 2.1 8.2
4 N Ehlers forw CAR vs VGK 0.27 0.45 2.1 0.9 7.7
5 C Hart goal VGK vs CAR 7.6
6 S Aho forw CAR vs VGK 0.26 0.38 2.3 1.5 7.5
7 J Chatfield defe CAR vs VGK 0.09 0.30 1.7 7.3
8 P Dorofeyev forw VGK vs CAR 0.30 0.41 1.7 0.3 7.2
9 T Hall forw CAR vs VGK 0.27 0.27 2.3 1.5 7.1
10 A Svechnikov forw CAR vs VGK 0.27 0.27 2.1 3.3 6.8
11 J Eichel forw VGK vs CAR 0.23 0.42 1.8 1.2 6.7
12 J Blake forw CAR vs VGK 0.23 0.32 2.0 1.3 6.6
13 K Miller defe CAR vs VGK 0.08 0.26 1.5 6.5
14 L Stankoven forw CAR vs VGK 0.26 0.28 1.9 2.3 6.5
15 R Andersson defe VGK vs CAR 0.05 0.28 1.6 6.3
16 J Staal forw CAR vs VGK 0.26 0.26 1.8 4.0 6.2
17 S Walker defe CAR vs VGK 0.07 0.25 1.4 6.2
18 B Howden forw VGK vs CAR 0.27 0.26 1.7 3.2 6.1
19 B Bussi goal CAR vs VGK 6.0
20 N Hanifin defe VGK vs CAR 0.05 0.20 1.2 6.0
21 J Slavin defe CAR vs VGK 0.07 0.28 1.2 5.9
22 M Stone forw VGK vs CAR 0.24 0.28 1.6 3.2 5.9
23 B McNabb defe VGK vs CAR 0.11 0.25 0.9 5.7
24 S Gostisbehere defe CAR vs VGK 0.08 0.28 1.1 5.2
25 I Barbashev forw VGK vs CAR 0.20 0.23 1.4 4.0 5.0

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.