CAR @ VGK

NHL T-Mobile Arena ·Paradise · SOG CAR 23 · 22 VGK

3–0

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (VGK) / 10 (CAR) games this season

CAR away

home VGK

66% 34%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 4-3

CAR

Away

Metric

VGK

Home

68-32

Record

53-50

68%

Win %

51%

3.6

GF/G

3.3

2.8

GA/G

3.0

WWLWL

LLWLW

Team totals

CAR

VGK

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
J Blake	1	1	2	3	0	2	6.62
N Ehlers	1	0	1	3	0	1	7.65
T Hall	1	0	1	2	0	2	7.12
L Stankoven	0	1	1	1	5	2	6.46
S Jarvis	0	0	0	2	2	0	8.17
W Carrier	0	0	0	1	3	0	2.02

Defense

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
S Walker	0	2	0	2	6.17
J Chatfield	0	1	4	1	7.3
K Miller	0	2	1	1	6.47
J Slavin	1	1	2	0	5.92
S Gostisbehere	0	0	0	0	5.18
A Nikishin	0	0	0	1	3.6

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
P Kochetkov	0	0		0
B Bussi	22	22	1.000	0

Player	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
M Marner	3	3	-3	9.18
I Barbashev	2	3	-2	4.96
M Stone	2	3	-1	5.86
R Smith	0	3	0	4.13
B Howden	1	2	-2	6.08
C Smith	0	2	0	1.77

Player	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
S Theodore	-1	0	0	8.73
B McNabb	0	0	1	5.72
R Andersson	-2	1	1	6.28
N Hanifin	-2	2	0	6.02
J Lauzon	0	0	7	4.05
K Korczak	0	0	0	2.95

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
C Hart	20	22	0.909	2
A Hill	0	0		0

Statlab projections

Pre-game projection from per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	M Marner	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.29	0.67	2.2	1.3	9.2
2	S Theodore	defe	VGK vs CAR	0.17	0.41	1.8		8.7
3	S Jarvis	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.31	0.39	2.4	2.1	8.2
4	N Ehlers	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.27	0.45	2.1	0.9	7.7
5	C Hart	goal	VGK vs CAR					7.6
6	S Aho	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.26	0.38	2.3	1.5	7.5
7	J Chatfield	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.09	0.30	1.7		7.3
8	P Dorofeyev	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.30	0.41	1.7	0.3	7.2
9	T Hall	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.27	0.27	2.3	1.5	7.1
10	A Svechnikov	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.27	0.27	2.1	3.3	6.8
11	J Eichel	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.23	0.42	1.8	1.2	6.7
12	J Blake	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.23	0.32	2.0	1.3	6.6
13	K Miller	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.08	0.26	1.5		6.5
14	L Stankoven	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.26	0.28	1.9	2.3	6.5
15	R Andersson	defe	VGK vs CAR	0.05	0.28	1.6		6.3
16	J Staal	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.26	0.26	1.8	4.0	6.2
17	S Walker	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.07	0.25	1.4		6.2
18	B Howden	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.27	0.26	1.7	3.2	6.1
19	B Bussi	goal	CAR vs VGK					6.0
20	N Hanifin	defe	VGK vs CAR	0.05	0.20	1.2		6.0
21	J Slavin	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.07	0.28	1.2		5.9
22	M Stone	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.24	0.28	1.6	3.2	5.9
23	B McNabb	defe	VGK vs CAR	0.11	0.25	0.9		5.7
24	S Gostisbehere	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.08	0.28	1.1		5.2
25	I Barbashev	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.20	0.23	1.4	4.0	5.0

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.