VGK @ CAR

NHL Lenovo Center ·{'default': 'Raleigh'} · SOG VGK 25 · 24 CAR

2–4

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (CAR) / 10 (VGK) games this season

VGK away

home CAR

39% 61%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 2-4

VGK

Away

Metric

CAR

Home

53-49

Record

67-32

52%

Win %

68%

3.3

GF/G

3.6

3.0

GA/G

2.8

LWLWW

WLWLW

Team totals

VGK

CAR

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
P Dorofeyev	2	0	2	3	1	1	8.73
J Eichel	0	2	2	1	2	1	6.73
T Hertl	0	1	1	3	2	0	3.12
C Smith	0	0	0	0	2	0	1.56
I Barbashev	0	0	0	2	6	-1	4.88
K Kolesar	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.23

Defense

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
S Theodore	1	-1	3	0	7.82
N Hanifin	0	0	0	0	6.39
R Andersson	0	0	3	0	6.7
B McNabb	0	0	3	1	5.14
J Lauzon	0	0	1	2	4.26
D Coghlan	0	-1	2	0	3.48

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
A Hill	0	0		0
C Hart	20	24	0.833	4

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
N Ehlers	0	3	3	0	1	0	8.38
A Svechnikov	2	0	2	3	2	1	7.35
J Staal	1	0	1	3	5	0	6.48
S Aho	1	0	1	2	1	1	8.38
J Martinook	0	1	1	0	4	1	5.49
S Jarvis	0	1	1	4	3	0	9.13

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
J Slavin	0	1	1	1	6.21
J Chatfield	0	0	1	1	7.87
K Miller	0	0	4	0	7.35
S Walker	1	1	1	4	6.66
S Gostisbehere	2	0	0	0	5.86
A Nikishin	0	0	0	1	3.77

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
B Bussi	23	25	0.920	2
P Kochetkov	0	0		0

Statlab projections

Pre-game projection from per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	S Jarvis	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.36	0.45	2.6	2.0	9.1
2	P Dorofeyev	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.29	0.72	1.8	0.1	8.7
3	C Hart	goal	VGK vs CAR					8.6
4	T Hall	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.32	0.40	2.6	1.6	8.6
5	J Blake	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.33	0.47	2.3	1.2	8.5
6	S Aho	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.31	0.45	2.3	1.5	8.4
7	N Ehlers	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.33	0.43	2.3	0.7	8.4
8	J Chatfield	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.09	0.39	1.7		7.9
9	S Theodore	defe	VGK vs CAR	0.14	0.33	1.2		7.8
10	M Marner	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.23	0.55	2.1	0.9	7.8
11	L Stankoven	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.30	0.32	2.2	2.4	7.5
12	A Svechnikov	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.29	0.32	2.2	3.3	7.4
13	K Miller	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.11	0.34	1.7		7.4
14	J Eichel	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.22	0.36	2.0	0.6	6.7
15	R Andersson	defe	VGK vs CAR	0.05	0.39	1.3		6.7
16	S Walker	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.08	0.28	1.6		6.7
17	J Staal	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.28	0.28	1.8	4.0	6.5
18	N Hanifin	defe	VGK vs CAR	0.05	0.21	1.2		6.4
19	J Slavin	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.07	0.29	1.3		6.2
20	S Gostisbehere	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.07	0.32	1.4		5.9
21	B Bussi	goal	CAR vs VGK					5.7
22	W Karlsson	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.22	0.27	1.6	0.6	5.6
23	J Martinook	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.21	0.21	1.8	2.0	5.5
24	M Stone	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.20	0.24	1.6	2.5	5.3
25	B Howden	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.22	0.23	1.5	2.7	5.2

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.