CAR @ VGK

NHL T-Mobile Arena ·{'default': 'Paradise'} · SOG CAR 28 · 21 VGK

5–3

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (VGK) / 10 (CAR) games this season

CAR away

home VGK

58% 42%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 4-1

CAR

Away

Metric

VGK

Home

66-32

Record

53-48

67%

Win %

52%

3.6

GF/G

3.3

2.8

GA/G

3.0

LWLWW

WLWWW

Team totals

CAR

VGK

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
N Ehlers	1	2	3	3	1	2	7.29
J Staal	2	0	2	4	2	2	6.04
J Blake	1	1	2	3	2	1	6.92
L Stankoven	1	0	1	3	3	0	6.79
T Hall	0	1	1	3	0	1	7.41
S Aho	0	1	1	3	1	-1	7.42

Defense

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
J Slavin	0	2	1	1	5.84
J Chatfield	1	2	0	4	7.4
K Miller	0	-2	1	2	7.21
S Walker	0	-2	3	5	6.45
S Gostisbehere	1	0	1	0	6.06
A Nikishin	0	1	2	2	3.69

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
B Bussi	18	21	0.857	3
P Kochetkov	0	0		0

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
W Karlsson	1	1	2	1	1	1	6.29
M Stone	1	0	1	5	6	-1	6.35
B Howden	1	0	1	1	2	1	5.88
M Marner	0	1	1	0	3	-1	10.34
C Sissons	0	1	1	2	4	0	2.52
P Dorofeyev	0	0	0	2	0	-2	9.62

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
S Theodore	1	-2	3	0	8.05
R Andersson	1	0	3	0	6.3
B McNabb	1	0	1	1	5.16
N Hanifin	0	1	3	0	6.28
J Lauzon	0	-1	1	7	4.44
D Coghlan	0	0	0	0	3.49

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
A Hill	0	0		0
C Hart	23	27	0.852	4

Statlab projections

Pre-game projection from per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	M Marner	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.30	0.76	2.7	0.9	10.3
2	P Dorofeyev	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.33	0.78	1.9	0.4	9.6
3	C Hart	goal	VGK vs CAR					8.8
4	S Jarvis	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.33	0.39	2.4	2.2	8.4
5	S Theodore	defe	VGK vs CAR	0.13	0.32	1.4		8.1
6	J Eichel	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.20	0.61	2.0	1.0	7.8
7	A Svechnikov	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.31	0.35	2.2	3.5	7.7
8	S Aho	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.27	0.45	1.9	1.6	7.4
9	T Hall	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.30	0.31	2.2	1.7	7.4
10	J Chatfield	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.10	0.26	1.8		7.4
11	N Ehlers	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.31	0.32	2.0	0.7	7.3
12	K Miller	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.11	0.37	1.6		7.2
13	J Blake	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.26	0.36	1.9	1.2	6.9
14	L Stankoven	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.28	0.29	2.0	2.3	6.8
15	S Walker	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.08	0.26	1.7		6.5
16	M Stone	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.24	0.37	1.6	2.5	6.4
17	R Andersson	defe	VGK vs CAR	0.10	0.29	1.2		6.3
18	W Karlsson	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.23	0.37	1.7	0.8	6.3
19	N Hanifin	defe	VGK vs CAR	0.05	0.19	1.2		6.3
20	S Gostisbehere	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.09	0.30	1.6		6.1
21	J Staal	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.26	0.27	1.7	3.8	6.0
22	B Howden	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.25	0.29	1.5	3.2	5.9
23	J Slavin	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.06	0.26	1.2		5.8
24	I Barbashev	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.21	0.27	1.6	4.0	5.5
25	J Martinook	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.20	0.21	1.7	2.1	5.3

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.